BEVAN READ/STUFF

While the number of people arriving in New Zealand intending to stay permanently continues to increase, the number leaving jumped by more than 20 per cent in the year to April 30, compared to a year earlier.

Migration has dipped to a new two-year low, as the number of people leaving New Zealand increases.

Statistics New Zealand said that in the year to the end of April, the gain from migration was just over 67,000, down around 1000 from the year to the end of March.

The fall was driven by a climb in the number of people leaving New Zealand, in particular non-New Zealand citizens.

Although non-New Zealand citizen arrivals rose to 98,332 in the year to April, up around 500 on the year earlier, non-New Zealand citizen departures hit 30,185, up more than 5500 on a year earlier.

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The number of New Zealand citizens leaving New Zealand (33,232) was slightly above those returning home (32,123). Back in 2012, New Zealand was seeing an annual net-loss of citizens of around 40,000.

Much of the change in the migration patterns among citizens has been driven by fewer Kiwis moving across the Tasman, and many moving home, as the Australian labour market cooled.

Over the past three years, the path of migration has continually been stronger than forecast, peaking at around an annual gain 72,000.

Over the past three years, both the Reserve Bank and the Treasury have continually predicted that migration patterns were on the verge of returning to historic averages.

While the latest Treasury forecasts, contained in Thursday's Budget, still predict migration will continue to cool, it now assumes that the net gain from migration will fall to a gain of 25,000 a year by 2022, where previously it expected migration to fall to 15,000 a year.

ASB senior economist Jane Turner said net migration was expected to ease, but only gradually.

"We expect a very gradual moderation in net migration over the coming years, as NZ's tight labour market is likely to remain a strong pull for [permanent and long term] arrivals."

Stronger migration forecasts were one of the reasons Treasury increased its forecasts for economic growth in the coming years.

On May 14, National leader Simon Bridges warned that increased Government spending here, coupled with tax cuts in Australia aimed at middle-class families, could restart the "brain drain", the politically-charged term used to describe periods when thousands of Kiwis head overseas for work opportunities.

 - Stuff