The Atlanta Braves were not supposed to be this competitive in 2018. Entering the season, oddsmakers, prognosticators and projection systems all had the Braves finishing near the bottom of the NL East. But Atlanta’s return to baseball relevancy is happening sooner than expected.
The Braves entered Friday at 26-16 and atop the division. That’s in line with what we would expect based on their runs scored and allowed (27-15) and after adjusting for the strength of their opponents, also known as third-order wins (26-16).
The offense is fueling much of the surge. Entering Friday, Atlanta was batting .266 (second in the majors) with a .780 OPS (third), generating runs at a rate that is 11 percent higher than the league average after adjusting for league and park effects (111 wRC+). Only the New York Yankees have been more prolific (112 wRC+).
First baseman Freddie Freeman is leading the NL in on-base percentage (.431) with more command of the strike zone than we have seen in years past. He is swinging at a career-low 27 percent of pitches out of the zone and has reduced his swinging-strike rate to a 9 percent. He previously had never been below double digits during a nine-year career. Freeman is a two-time all-star, so his performance at the plate isn’t completely unexpected, but outfielder Nick Markakis and second baseman Ozzie Albies have been big surprises in the very best sense.
Markakis, 34, was batting .330 with a career-high .929 OPS, cutting his strikeout rate from 16 to 9 percent in just one season. His batting average on balls put in play is high, .338 compared to a league average of .295, but based on the exit velocities and launch angels when he does put the ball in play, his average and slugging rates don’t appear to be abnormal. In fact, his expected slugging rate (.518) is a bit low compared to his actual results (.495), so you could argue Markakis has been a bit unlucky at the plate despite his impressive numbers.
Albies, a rookie last season, is flashing power we haven’t previously seen. The 21-year-old is tied for second in MLB in home runs (13) and second in the majors in total bases (110), putting him in the company of more well-known sluggers such as Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and Manny Machado. His plate discipline is improved from 2017 and he has increased his launch angle from 15 to 18.1 degrees year over year, dropping his groundball rate from 41 to 35 percent, which research has shown to be ideal.
Preston Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Ryan Flaherty and Kurt Suzuki are also outhitting their preseason projections.
Tucker is crushing breaking balls, hitting .389 with three home runs and five extra-base hits against curveballs and sliders. Swanson is hitting the ball harder than ever (89 mph). Flaherty has improved his walk rate from 9.3 percent as a member of the Baltimore Orioles to 11.8 percent with Atlanta in 2018 with a corresponding reduction in strikeout rate (23.3 to 20.2 percent). And Suzuki ‘s overall slash line of .262/.333/.456 might not look impressive, but based on how hard he has hit the ball, he should be better in all those categories. In fact, his .337 weighted on-base average, a version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base instead of simply considering whether a player reached base, is lower than what we would expect (.350) given his at-bats. Same for Freeman (.420 vs. an expected .464), who ranks ninth in the majors for wOBA .
If you are still skeptical about Atlanta’s recent return to competitiveness, keep an eye on their upcoming schedule. Beginning Monday in Philadelphia, they have a 14-game stretch against the Phillies, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and Washington Nationals. Entering Friday’s game against the Miami Marlins, the Braves are projected to win 83 games, good for a share of second place in the NL East with the Phillies behind the Nationals and ahead of the Mets. If Atlanta can do better than expected, not only will the Braves be well positioned in the division, their playoff odds, which stand at 29 percent, will certainly continue to rise.