NEW DELHI:
Karnataka chief minister BS
Yeddyurappa is seeking a trust vote in the state assembly on Saturday. Here is how the show of strength could play in the assembly today.
The BJP has emerged as the single largest party with 104 seats, followed by the Congress with 78, JD(S) with 37 and three seats have gone to others in the 224-member assembly where elections were held for 222 seats.
The majority mark was 112 seats but it has gone down by one to 111 as JD(S) leader
H D Kumaraswamy has won from two assembly constituencies of Ramanagaram and Channapatna. However, he will be eligible to cast only one vote during the floor test.
Since the pro tem speaker is allowed to vote only in case of a tie, 220 votes can be cast initially, and the midway mark is 110. Not counting the speaker, BJP has 103 votes and needs 7 more to reach 110. Once there, the speaker can break the tie in his party’s favour.
Possible scenarios
1. BJP gets at least 7 Congress/JD(S) MLAs to vote in its favour, and wins, though rebel MLAs will face anti-defection law.
2. Yeddyurappa gets 14 Congress/JD(S) MLAs to resign immediately after taking oath, or abstain from taking oath, reducing the effective strength of the House to 206 and the majority mark to 104. The MLAs would most likely be disqualified, but could be elected in bypolls on BJP ticket .
3. Passions run high, floor test is plunged into chaos in the face of intense disruptions, governor orders House to be kept under suspended animation.
4. Congress-JD(S) combine is able to hang on to its MLAs, ensures there is no defection or last-minute absenteeism and wins the trust vote.
5. If Yeddyurappa fails to rustle up numbers, he could resign before facing the floor test, and hope to gain sympathy and improve BJP’s prospects in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. He has done so once before, in 2007, when he was CM for 7 days.
