Wilkin: Good Magic still the pick for Preakness

Baltimore

The smart thing to do would be to jump on board the Justify bus, lock all the doors and never leave.

But where is the adventure in that? Rambo would not approve nor would Indiana Jones or John McClane for that matter.

The easy thing to do as we head into the 143rd running of the Preakness Stakes is to pick Justify, who is the best 3-year-old four-legged creature on the planet. If all things are equal, Justify is going to make Pimlico Race Course his own private playground just before 7 on Saturday night.

But, anyone who follows this game knows the only sure thing in horse racing is that there is no sure thing.Justify is the 1-2 morning line favorite in the Preakness, and there are those who are already betting we'll see the sport's second Triple Crown in the last four years.

I want to see it, too. But I didn't pick Justify to win the Kentucky Derby when he went off at the generous odds of 5-2. I won't be selecting him on top when his morning line odds are 1-2 and will drop like a stone off a cliff on Preakness Day.

There is no glory in picking a 1-2 shot, right or wrong? So, I won't.

Even though it's going to be a chore to beat this marvelous chestnut colt, I will try. And, maybe it's not all that impossible. Justify has not had the clearest path to Pimlico. He did have an issue with his left hind foot the day after he won the Derby.

It was called a bruise, and was said to have started when Justify was splashing his way through the slop at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Bob Baffert, his trainer, and Elliott Walden, the President and CEO of WinStar Farm, the majority owner of the colt, said those problems are behind him.

Maybe they are. Justify has looked just as good, maybe better, this week than he did before the Derby. The Preakness will be the fifth race in Justify's career, all of them this year. The first was on Feb. 18. Five races in 90 days. That's an average of a race every 18 days.

He just might be better than the rest of his generation. I want to see him do it one more time. And he probably will. But there is a hint of doubt.

I am all about trying to get some value and that is why I am going to stick with my Kentucky Derby pick, Good Magic. Good Magic was beat 2 1/2 lengths by Justify in Kentucky. The Chad Brown-trained colt was originally not going to come to Baltimore, but those plans changed. Brown said Good Magic  came out of the Derby in great shape.

He says his horse deserves another chance at the champ. I agree. The Preakness is shorter than the Derby (the Run for the Roses is 1 1/4 miles, the Preakness  1 3/16 miles). Maybe there is something going on with  Justify's armor after that issue after the Derby.

Now is the time to find out. Baffert said Friday morning that Good Magic is the horse Justify has to beat.

"He is a champion," Baffert said, referring to Good Magic being the 2017 2-year-old Eclipse winner.

There are eight horses in the Preakness. There is one superstar, we know that. But the superstar doesn't always play his 'A' game. I am counting on that happening Saturday and Good Magic being the horse to pick up the pieces.

After that, we have two other Derby horses in the field and I am dismissing them both (Lone Sailor was eighth, Bravazo sixth). Quip, who is owned by the same people who own Justify, was second in the Arkansas Derby. Really don't think Walden puts him in here if he thought he could beat Justify.

Tenfold was fifth in the Arkansas Derby. He's out.  Diamond King, from good-guy trainer John Servis, has won four of six but has never faced the likes of these. Sporting Chance won the Hopeful a year ago, and I have always been high on him. Maybe he jumps up and does something in the Preakness.

To me, the Preakness is a two-horse race. Most everyone will have Justify on top of the heap. But not me.

The picks: 1. Good Magic. 2. Justify. 3. Sporting Chance. 4. Lone Sailor.

twilkin@timesunion.com ■ 518-454-5415 ■ @tjwilkin