Chart of the day: History gives incumbents the edge in upcoming by-elections
Updated
A lot of attention will be devoted to federal by-elections in coming weeks, but it could all be much ado about nothing.
Dual citizenship concerns have prompted four resignations (three Labor and one Central Alliance MP), while another Labor MP resigned for family reasons.
Of 27 by-elections in the past 25 years, all but four went to the incumbent.
So if history is a guide, Labor is not likely to lose this time around. An opposition has only lost two in the last 25 years, and neither of those were contested by the government of the day.
Going further back, an opposition has not lost a seat to a government at a by-election since 1920.
What should I read next?
- Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money
- The battle for Mayo: Adelaide Hills voters are about to get another taste of election season
- Mathias Cormann admits Liberals have given up on Perth, Fremantle by-elections
Where can I find more charts?
This is part of a new daily series featuring charts which tell a story. If you know of some data that fits the bill, we'd love to hear about it.
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Topics: federal-elections, government-and-politics, federal-parliament, alp, australia
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