Social base of the RLD was shattered

| | Lucknow | in Lucknow

The joint opposition candidate of Rashtriya Lok dal for the by polls to kairana Lok Sabha seat  face the uphill task of  restoring the social coalition of the party comprising of the different castes like Jat, Gujjar, dalits, OBCs Brahmin and Rajput scatted in two religious faiths Hindu and Islam.  This social coalition was weaved by the late Prime Minister Chowdhary Charan Singh after he deserted the Congress in 1967. It was a coalition of the farmers drawn from all the communities from both religions.

The social base of the RLD was shattered following the worst ever communal riots in Muzaffarnagar and Shamli district in September 2013. The then Akhilesh Yadav government had drawn flak from all sides for its failure to contain the violence which claimed 67 lives and huge loss of private and public property besides displacing several lakh persons  from their villages who were forced to take shelter in relief camps.

Though as per the compulsions of the binary of the secular-communal electoral politics of Uttar Pradesh, entire blame for the communal riots was laid at the door of the BJP, the RLD had then accused the Samajwadi party government of engineering the riots with a clear political motive.  The 2014 Lok Sabha vindicated the allegations of the RLD as the party was wiped out in West UP and also in 2017 UP assembly elections. It could win only one seat in the assembly. The lone RLD MLA has now joined the BJP.

The political compulsions have now forced the RLD to knock at the doors of the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party for its revival in Western UP. It is in this context that the performance of the joint opposition candidate in Kairana Lok Sabha and Noorpur assembly seat will decide the foundation of the alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.  The success of the Samajwadi party candidates in Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha by polls has paved the way for the coming together of the opposition parties.

The opposition has fielded RLD candidate from Kairana. The RLD candidate faces the uphill task of restoring the social coalition of the party. Besides the RLD, SP and BSP have realised that sticking together, as of now, is the only formula to check the belligerent BJP.

That is why, the RLD, having high-stakes in the western parts of Uttar Pradesh and keen to contest Kairana seat, had announced full support to the united opposition. The RLD chose the former BSP MP Tabassum Begum for the Kairana by poll. She was also in the SP earlier. Her son Nahid Hasan is the SP MLA from Kairana.

There was speculation that Chaudhary will contest from the seat, but Tabassum’s selection was dictated by the exigencies of coalition politics. While Tabassum had links with the BSP, the challenge was to ensure Jats voted for her and that’s why the RLD symbol.Tabassum is the wife of former Samajwadi MP Munnawar Hasan. It is unique in the sense that the candidate having such strong ties with the SP and BSP is contesting on RLD symbol. Tabassum’s candidature is also an attempt to bring the dominant Jats together with Muslims and Dalits on a platform to withstand the challenge from the BJP.

The Opposition which appears to be grabbing the chance for a rewind of Gorakhpur and Phulpur for further redeeming its pride might also be faced with a tough task in Kairana as it was much easier for the BSP to transfer its dedicated vote bank to the SP candidates to defeat the BJP in its stronghold. It will not be that easy for the RLD and Congress to repeat the same.