The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season could get an early start this week, with forecasters watching a possible system in the Gulf of Mexico, but whether that system forms or not, eastern Central Florida has begun a really wet week.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the area of clouds and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf and much of Florida is associated with a low pressure system that's interacting with a low in the upper atmosphere. As the area of showers moves north it could acquire some tropical characteristics. They give the system a 40 percent chance of formation over the next five days. If a tropical storm develops, it would be named Alberto.
Regardless of any storm formation, the main impacts locally will be big waves, lots of rainfall and isolated thunderstorms.
Widespread rainfall totaling 5 inches is possible across Volusia and Flagler counties this week, with locally heavier amounts up to 8 inches possible in some locations, according to forecasts from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center.
As of Monday morning at 8 a.m., one Skywarn weather spotter in western Palm Coast already had reported 2.6 inches of rain, said Bob Pickering, an emergency services technician with Flagler County Emergency Management. Another Skywarn spotter had reported 2.0 inches in northwestern Palm Coast.
The periods of intense rainfall, especially in heavier amounts could cause localized flooding, the Weather Service warned.
The gloomy forecast already has spawned weather delays. On Monday morning, the Florida High School Athletic Association announced it was pushing back the state softball championships in Vero Beach to a scheduled Saturday start.
With another system expected to move in by the weekend, rain chances are forecast at 70 percent through next weekend.
Most locations are likely to welcome the rainfall, stated Angela Enyedi, a meteorologist with the Weather Service office in Jacksonville. The rainfall that began arriving Sunday night was the first significant rain in about three weeks, she said.
Many rivers in the region are running at near record low levels, she said. Water depth at gauges all along the St. Johns River show less than a foot of water, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
The most recent named storm to form in the Gulf of Mexico in May was a sub-tropical storm in 1976, reported Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the seasonal hurricane outlook from Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.
Since hurricane record-keeping began in 1851, four storms have formed in the Gulf of Mexico in May, Klotzbach stated on social media on Monday.