Drama series
The Crown (Netflix)
The End of the F***ing World (Channel 4/Netflix)
Line of Duty (BBC One)
Peaky Blinders (BBC Two)
This one feels like a photo-finish between The Crown and Line of Duty, in which perceived wrongs from last year – the cop show lacking nominations, the royal series receiving many nods but no trophies – may be redressed. Line of Duty should win, for its sustained intelligence and tension.
Entertainment programme
Ant & Dec’s Saturday Night Takeaway (ITV)
Britain’s Got Talent (ITV)
Michael McIntyre’s Big Show (BBC One)
The Voice UK (ITV)
The choice between a wearily familiar quartet has been complicated by external events. Might the traditional award to Ant & Dec (winners seven times since 2010) be stalled by a desire to censure Anthony McPartlin for his drink-driving conviction, or speeded by sympathy for his decision to undergo addiction rehab? The availability of Michael McIntyre as a perfectly non-controversial alternative seems likely to be decisive.
Mini-series
Howard’s End (BBC One)
The Moorside (BBC One)
The State (Channel 4)
Three Girls (BBC One)
Probably the toughest category to judge, as a winning case could be made for every nomination and the range is so wide: an adaptation of an EM Forster novel against headline-based contemporary dramas about the Shannon Matthews kidnapping, British jihadis in Syria, and the Rochdale teenage grooming case. Howard’s End might nick it but, for me, The State was the bravest and and most urgent work, and Three Girls would be a worthy and likely winner.
Single drama
Against the Law (BBC Two)
Black Mirror: Hang The DJ (Netflix)
King Charles III (BBC Two)
Murdered for Being Different (BBC Three)
Bafta juries are often warned that they are rewarding broadcasting excellence rather than the merit of a show’s message, and this injunction is important here. Against the Law and Murdered for Being Different are eloquent pleas against bigotry, but the real dramatic originality is in Mike Bartlett’s Shakespearean pastiche of life after Elizabeth II and Charlie Brooker’s fantasy (chilling and clever, even for Black Mirror) of a state-run dating system of time-limited relationships. Another photo-finish but Hang the DJ feels the worthy victor.
Scripted comedy
Catastrophe (Channel 4)
Chewing Gum (E4)
This Country (BBC Three)
Timewasters (ITV2)
The established Catastrophe and Chewing Gum, which have previously won writing or performance awards, go up against two newcomers. The tragicomic rural mock-doc This Country looks the favourite unless a fear of the BBC sweeping the awards (a factor in recent years) might nab it for Catastrophe.
Comedy entertainment programme
The Last Leg (Channel 4)
Murder in Successville (BBC Three)
Taskmaster (Dave)
Would I Lie to You? (BBC One)
Another above-weight punch from BBC Three with the very funny Murder in Successville, but The Last Leg has maintained a high standard of originality, daring and comedy, so deserves to win.
Leading actress
Claire Foy – The Crown (Netflix)
Molly Windsor – Three Girls (BBC One)
Sinead Keenan – Little Boy Blue (ITV)
Thandie Newton – Line of Duty (BBC One)
Foy should have won last year for one of the most technically and psychologically precise performances in TV history, but now comes up against Newton, whose magnetic performance as a dodgy copper never sought easy sympathy from the audience. Expect Newton to edge it.
Leading actor
Jack Rowan – Born to Kill (Channel 4)
Joe Cole – Black Mirror: Hang The DJ (Netflix)
Sean Bean – Broken (BBC One)
Tim Pigott-Smith – King Charles III (BBC Two)
Bean’s performance as a flawed but decent Catholic priest competes against a revered actor who, after his death last April, can never top his verbally and psychologically precise portrayal of the current Prince of Wales as king. A share would be the fairest outcome, but maybe Bean should win, as his brilliance was stretched across six hours.
Supporting actor
Adrian Dunbar – Line of Duty (BBC One)
Anupam Kher – The Boy With the Topknot (BBC Two)
Brían F O’Byrne – Little Boy Blue (ITV)
Jimmi Simpson – Black Mirror: USS Callister (Netflix)
A notably international category, with Indian, Northern Irish, Irish-American and American contenders. It’s a heavyweight lineup, but it would be a travesty were Dunbar not to take it for the moral complexity and sheer screen presence of his Ted Hastings in Line of Duty.
Supporting actress
Anna Friel – Broken (BBC One)
Julie Hesmondhalgh – Broadchurch (ITV)
Liv Hill – Three Girls (BBC One)
Vanessa Kirby – The Crown (Netflix)
Four highly emotive portrayals of tragic women across the class spectrum from breadline to royal receiving line. Hesmondhalgh and Friel have both made the journey from soap (Brookside and Coronation Street) to peak-time drama. But Hesmondhalgh shades this for her detailed, gruellingly researched performance as a rape survivor in Broadchurch.
Female performance in a comedy programme
Anna Maxwell Martin – Motherland (BBC Two)
Daisy May Cooper – This Country (BBC Three)
Sharon Horgan – Catastrophe (Channel 4)
Sian Gibson – Peter Kay’s Car Share (BBC One)
Gibson’s final outing in Car Share (with Peter Kay, oddly ignored in the male category) will be eligible next year, and there may be a temptation to leave her until then, while also gambling that Cooper (with brother Charlie) will take Breakthrough Talent in the BAFTA Craft awards, announced on the same night. Maxwell Martin brought a remarkably sustained demented energy to Motherland. But possible unease in the room about a BBC-dominated shortlist makes me feel this will go to Horgan.
Male performance in a comedy programme
Asim Chaudhry – People Just Do Nothing (BBC Three)
Rob Brydon – The Trip to Spain (Sky Atlantic)
Samson Kayo – Famalam (BBC Two)
Toby Jones – Detectorists (BBC Four)
It’s not clear how Brydon can be separated from Steve Coogan in the success of The Trip franchise. Kayo is a great talent, but will possibly be seen to have time to fill his prize cabinet in the future. Which leaves a run-off between Chaudhry, unlucky not to win last year, and Jones, one of our finest character actors, now nominated for the fourth time across various Bafta categories without having yet won. Hard to call, but it would be a popular result if Jones’s night finally comes.
Entertainment performance
Adam Hills – The Last Leg (Channel 4)
Graham Norton – The Graham Norton Show (BBC One)
Michael McIntyre – Michael McIntyre’s Big Show (BBC One)
Sandi Toksvig – QI (BBC Two)
Norton remains on top talkshow form, but, as a five-time former winner, risks being seen by judges as the Real Madrid of the format, with enough silverware already. It’s also been 24 years since a woman took home this trophy and that fact, plus Toksvig’s un-nominated success in the Channel 4 transplant of The Great British Bake-Off, should deservedly win it for her.
International
Big Little Lies (HBO/Sky Atlantic)
Feud: Bette and Joan (FX/BBC Two)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu/Channel 4)
The Vietnam War (BBC Four)
The adaptation of Margaret Atwood’s dystopian novel competes with one of the greatest TV history documentaries in TV history: Burns and Novick’s astonishing investigation of the conflict that still shapes US foreign policy. I’d slightly favour The Vietnam War, but either it or The Handmaid’s Tale sets standards that British TV still struggles to meet.
News coverage
The Battle for Mosul (Sky News)
The Grenfell Tower Fire ( Channel 4)
The Grenfell Tower Fire (ITV)
The Rohingya Crisis (Sky News)
It always feels queasy when reporting on massacres and catastrophes is put into an awards race. How do you decide if ITN covered Grenfell better for ITV or for Channel 4? But as international coverage needs all the help it can get in today’s broadcasting culture, Sky should be honoured for its impressive coverage, whether from Iraq or Bangladesh.
Current affairs
Raped: My Story (Channel 5)
Dispatches: Syria’s Disappeared – The Case Against Assad (Channel 4)
Panorama: Undercover – Britain’s Immigration Secrets (BBC One)
Exposure: White Right – Meeting the Enemy (ITV)
In this category as well, it’s ultimately impossible to separate broadcasting craft from the moral urgency or horror of the subjects. Any winner would be plausible, but I would call it for White Right because of its combination of film-making skill and reportorial importance.
Single documentary
Chris Packham: Asperger’s and Me (BBC Two)
Louis Theroux: Talking to Anorexia (BBC Two)
One Deadly Weekend in America (BBC Three)
Rio Ferdinand: Being Mum and Dad (BBC One)
Another uncomfortable discussion: how do you decide between the claims of autism, eating disorders, gun crime, and bereaved children? Theroux is a Bafta favourite, but his entry had a familiar feel, so this looks like Packham v Ferdinand, in a contest of personal honesty, with the latter just ahead.
Live event
ITV News Election 2017 Live: The Results (ITV)
One Love Manchester (BBC One)
Wild Alaska Live (BBC One)
World War One Remembered: Passchendaele (BBC Two)
ITV, for the first time in living memory, won a general election night, with a fresh and energetic approach, led by Tom Bradby, Robert Peston and Julie Etchingham. However, the BBC (un-nominated) had Sir John Curtice and his exit poll, which drove the night’s narrative. It can be argued that the impact of One Love Manchester owed more to content and context than production craft, but Ariana Grande’s courageous concert will surely win.
Factual series
Ambulance (BBC One)
Catching a Killer (Channel 4)
Drugsland (BBC Three)
Hospital (BBC Two)
Two behind-the-police-tape shows are up against a pair of inside-the-NHS series. The clincher will have been whether the panel was most interested in cops or docs, but, for both its levels of information and film-making finesse, this should go to Catching a Killer.
Features
Antiques Roadshow (BBC One)
Cruising With Jane McDonald (Channel 5)
No More Boys and Girls: Can Our Kids Go Gender Free? (BBC Two)
The Secret Life of the Zoo (Channel 4)
Probably the most chalk v cheese choice. Itself a TV antique (this year saw its 40th season), Antiques Roadshow makes a case through its enduring high ratings. In contrast, No More Boys and Girls tackles an of-the-minute issue, which may appeal to Bafta’s increasingly younger juries.
Reality and constructed factual
Celebrity Hunted (Channel 4)
Love Island (ITV2)
Old People’s Home for 4-Year-Olds (Channel 4)
The Real Full Monty (ITV)
A real test of Bafta’s historical conservatism and snobbery and against populist forms. Love Island became the biggest media, social media and bus-stop TV talking point for years, and, if it doesn’t win, it’s hard to see much point to this prize. If moral or cultural revulsion take hold, Channel 4 offers two safer alternatives.
Soap and continuing drama
Casualty (BBC One)
Coronation Street (ITV)
Emmerdale (ITV)
Hollyoaks (Channel 4)
With so few potential runners rotating the trophy, this one always risks being named Buggin’s Cup, with the main interest this year the snub to the troubled EastEnders. Emmerdale won in 2017, so Coronation Street, with its Bethany Platt grooming storyline falling in the qualifying year, looks a strong bet, with Hollyoaks a possible dark horse.
Short-form programme
Britain’s Forgotten Men (BBC Three)
Eating With My Ex (BBC Three)
Morgana Robinson’s Summer (Sky Arts)
Pls Like (BBC Three)
Freed from clock-watching schedules to use a variety of show sizes, the streamed BBC Three owns this category and one of its three should win: I’d like to see a win for Pls Like, its savage satire of vloggers.
Specialist factual
Basquiat - Rage to Riches (BBC Two)
Blitz: The Bombs That Changed Britain (BBC Two)
Blue Planet II (BBC One)
Elizabeth I’s Secret Agents (BBC Two)
There must have been a debate of only to use up the coffee and biscuits, but it’s hard to see a way past Sir David Attenborough and the pictorially stunning Blue Planet II.
Sport
Anthony Joshua v Wladimir Klitscho (Sky Sports)
The Grand National (ITV)
Six Nations: Wales v England (BBC One)
Uefa Women’s Euro Semi-Final: England v Netherlands (Channel 4)
The silliest category because how do you separate the thrills provided by the action from the skill of the coverage? Joshua’s win was the best sporting event, but Channel 4’s women’s football the freshest contribution to the schedule. So that, I guess.
Virgin TV’s must-see moment (voted for by the public)
Blue Planet II (BBC One)
Doctor Who (BBC One)
Game of Thrones (HBO/Sky Atlantic)
Line of Duty (BBC One)
Stormzy in Love Island (ITV)
Ariana Grande at One Love Manchester (BBC One)
If Sir David Attenborough or Game of Thrones stood for parliament, they would win by landslides, and so seem likely to dominate the only Bafta decided by the public. The wider sentimental kick of the bereaved whale should swing it for Blue Planet II.
The 2018 TV Baftas take place on Sunday 8pm BBC One