Do the Capitals look like a true Stanley Cup contender? (No.)

After years of failure and early exits, Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals finally punched their ticket into the third round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. That, in of itself, is cause for celebration, but the ultimate goal, the first championship in franchise history, has yet to be earned.

“The goal isn’t to get past the second round,” center Jay Beagle said. “The goal is the Stanley Cup. That’s always been the goal since we’ve been here. It’s a great feeling. Obviously, we’ll enjoy it. But we’re halfway there. Now we have a big job ahead of us here with Tampa.”

Washington is not the favorite to win the Stanley Cup this year and is a big underdog this round against Tampa Bay. Our postseason probabilities, which take into account a team’s actual win-loss record; its expected win-loss record based on goals scored and allowed, and its expected win-loss record based on expected goals for and against, give them a 15 percent chance of raising the Cup, the lowest in the field pending the outcome of Game 7 between the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets Thursday night.

The knock against Washington is easy to quantify: their statistical picture just doesn’t look like that of past Stanley Cup winners. The Capitals are trending below average at even strength in key postseason metrics when compared to previous Cup winners since 2008 (the first year the data is available), such as the percentage of shot attempts in their favor, expected goal differential based on shot quality and the rate of penalties drawn.

You could argue that Washington’s shot quality makes up for the low rate of shot attempts in its favor, but the amount of penalties the Capitals take compared to the opposition is alarming, especially considering their third-round opponent, the Lightning, had the third most-efficient power play during the regular season (24 percent) and bettered on that mark through the first two rounds of the playoffs (10-for-38, 26 percent).

Plus, it is likely Ovechkin and his linemates see a lot of ice time against Tampa Bay’s shutdown line of Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson, a trio that has not only outscored opponents 9-5 at even strength in the playoffs, it has also drawn eight more penalties than the line has taken, the highest differential among 27 other lines skating at least 50 minutes together this postseason. Meanwhile, two of the skaters that make up the top line with Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson, lead the team in minor penalties taken this playoff run.

Over the past 10 years, there have been some championship teams that ended their title run with a lower share of even-strength shot attempts, or inferior shot quality (expressed as expected goals), but no eventual Stanley Cup winner in that span ended its title run with a penalty share of less than 45 percent. If the Capitals are to prevail, they will have to improve their discipline.

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