How Swans are being beaten at their own game
Sydney's reputation as the kings of contested football is on the line as they brace for a slog in the wet against bogey side Hawthorn.
While the focus remains on whether superstar Lance Franklin can prove his fitness for Friday night's clash, the Swans' trademark style of play is being tested in a way not seen during coach John Longmire's time at the helm.
The Swans, who pride themselves on their uncompromising inside game, have now lost the contested possession count in five consecutive games. This has not happened since late 2008 when an ageing team under Paul Roos were beaten in that department eight times in a row.
Longmire's men have not been comprehensively outplayed for contested possessions, with an average differential of -5.6 a game, but it goes a way to explain the eighth-placed Swans' unremarkable start to the season.
There is a correlation to a drop-off from their midfield bulls Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and Dan Hannebery, who have all been pivotal to the club's strong record this decade.
Kennedy is having his lowest contested possession count since his first season in red and white in 2010, though his numbers are skewed by two poor outings. The Swans captain lifted his team to victory in Geelong and was judged by the coaches to have been their best in the narrow loss to North Melbourne.
Parker's contested numbers are down only marginally on last year, however his average of 22 disposals a game, or 19.2 since round three, is his lowest since 2013. He has, however, spent more time in attack this year to help out the Swans' undermanned and inexperienced forward line.
Hannebery's contested output of 7.2 a game is his worst since 2012, and well short of his 13 when he was equal fifth in the Brownlow in 2016, while his average possessions is his lowest since his debut season in 2009. Hannebery will not play this week. An interrupted pre-season and injury have contributed to his slump.
Longmire spoke in depth about the Swans' midfield issues after the loss to Adelaide when he described their inability to win the contest as being the start of a "vicious cycle" as it forced him to put extra numbers in the middle, which resulted in their forwards being outnumbered.
The Swans have no option but to get their hands dirty this week when they take to what is likely to be a rain-sodden MCG. Up to 25 millimetres of rain has been forecast for Melbourne on Friday.
"We've actually packed the flippers and a couple of boats as well," Longmire quipped.
They also have to contend with one of the best contested ball players in the game in Tom Mitchell, who left Sydney after the 2016 grand final defeat. Longmire said the Swans will consider tagging the Hawthorn ball magnet.
"What you do know is that regardless if you have anyone on him or not he's going to get 15-20 [possessions] at the very least," Longmire said.
"You understand he will get the ball, he's a very good player. Like any opposition player you try to nullify his influence when he's got it. It's very hard to completely nullify those guys who go in and pick it up from the bottom of the pack, which he's so good at."
The Hawks have succeeded against the Swans by simply keeping the ball off them, but Longmire said they had become a very good pressure team.
The Swans will make a final call on Franklin's availability on Thursday after they assess how he pulls up from Wednesday's closed session. Longmire said he was "not quite sure" if Franklin would play, but Swans football manager Tom Harley had been confident earlier in the week of him returning.