For decades, Karnataka has swayed between the Congress, BJP and has in the past propelled JD(S) leaders to the CM's chair. Here's how the state has swung and if the anti-incumbency factor is expected to come into play.
In a bid to boost chances of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Karnataka assembly election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been aggressively campaigning in the state.
Among the southern states, the saffron party tasted its first success in Karnataka and are leaving no stone unturned to regain power here.
On the other hand, incumbent Congress led by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah want to desperately hold on to power in ‘India’s Silicon Valley’. Besides Karnataka, Congress is in power only in Punjab, Mizoram and the Union Territory of Puducherry.
Multiple opinion polls have claimed that the elections will result in a hung Assembly and that the Janata Dal (Secular), led by former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s son KD Kumaraswamy, will be the potential ‘king maker’.
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However, PM Modi and the BJP will be hoping to win in what is often referred to as a ‘swing state’ by observers and psephologists.
For over 35 years, no government in the state has successfully retained power. The power has swayed between the Congress, BJP and has at times propelled JD(S) candidates to the chief minister’s chair.
Siddaramaiah is the first chief minister of Karnataka to complete a full term in office in 40 years.
How the state ‘swings’
In 2013, the Congress stormed to power, winning a clear majority with 122 seats. The BJP was seriously dented by BS Yeddyurappa’s own party — Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP). JD(S) bagged 40 seats in the election.
The year 2008 was a milestone year for the saffron party in the state. With 110 seats, it had fallen just short of getting a majority, but were able to form a government with the help of six independent Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs).
It marked the first time the party formed the government in Karnataka and in any southern Indian state. BS Yeddyurappa became the chief minister, only to step down in 2011, amidst corruption allegations. DV Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar completed the term.
Also see in pictures: A look at past CMs of the state and their tryst with power
The election in 2004 yielded a hung assembly with BJP and Congress getting 79 and 65 seats respectively. The JD(S), then led by Siddaramaiah, came in third with 58 seats. The Congress stitched a post-poll coalition under which Congress’ Dharam Singh became the CM and Siddaramaiah became deputy CM.
However, in 2006, KD Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) broke ties with the Congress and formed government along with the BJP. Yeddyurappa was sworn in as the CM while Kumaraswamy became the deputy CM. However, the coalition collapsed next year leading to fresh polls.
The constant swing witnessed in Karnataka has led to observers believing that the state has a very high anti-incumbency tendency.
However, a report by NDTV now suggests that the anti-incumbency factor has significantly decreased. The report suggests that the ability of sitting MLAs to get re-elected to the House has increased over a period of time as long as they are re-nominated by their party.
In the 2004 Assembly election, only 38 per cent MLAs were voted back. However, that number went to 49 per cent in the 2008 polls. In the 2013 polls, 58 per cent MLAs were voted back to the assembly.
Opinion polls suggest that Siddaramaiah remains the most favoured chief ministerial candidate, in a state where no CM has retained his position in over three decades. His approval rating stands much higher than both Yeddyurappa and Kumaraswamy.
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