Holding the first overall selection in the MLB Draft June 4, obviously, is the preferable option for the rebuilding Tigers.
But history has proven it to be a treacherous situation, more so than other major professional sports.
Expectations for first overall picks is equally evaluated, yet there is less certainty in baseball.
All drafts miss with early overall selections, but the MLB Draft is particularly precarious.
The MLB Draft has been in place since 1965, yet Ken Griffey Jr. and Chipper Jones are the only Hall of Fame players it has yielded at first overall in June.
The analytically-driven defending World Series champion Houston Astros have set a blue print for the Tigers, and other MLB teams, to follow. The Astros had the first overall pick three straight years (2012-14), and while they hit big with multi-dimensional shortstop Carlos Correa, they also missed mightily with Brady Aiken and Mark Appel.
Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg dramatically turned around the fortunes of the Washington Nationals, but for every solid hit there is at least another Bryan Bullington, Luke Hochevar, Tim Beckham or Matt Anderson, the latter the only first overall selection taken by the Tigers’ in the June phase (there used to be secondary phase in January with a limited pool).
The Tigers missed with the Anderson selection, despite the 100 mph fastball he displayed at Rice University. The best pitchers in that draft were taken in the sixth (Tim Hudson) and eighth (Cliff Lee) rounds.
Although ’97 was the only time the Tigers have previously held the first overall pick in June, they have selected second overall three times. The first was in 1976, which happened to be the Tigers’ best draft ever.
Alan Trammell and Jack Morris will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this summer. Each was taken by the Tigers in the ’76 draft, Trammell in the second round, Morris in the fifth.
The Tigers even took Ozzie Smith in that draft - in the seventh round - although he didn’t sign.
Oh, by the way, the Tigers selected Indiana high school pitcher Pat Underwood second overall. His MLB career was relatively brief.
In 1990, the Tigers’ picked San Diego State basketball player Tony Clark second overall. Chipper Jones was first. In 2004, the Tigers struck gold second overall with Justin Verlander, which at the time was considered a bit of a reach despite his power arm because JV had not pitched in one of college baseball’s power conferences at Old Dominion.
The Tigers’ range with very early picks in the MLB Draft is pretty much right on when it comes to the perils and promise. Underwood, Anderson, Clark, Verlander - two busts, a solid MLB player and a potential Hall of Famer.
Oh, several No.1 overall picks eventually played for the Tigers. Here’s that eclectic group: Mike Ivie, Mike Moore, Tim Belcher, Phil Nevin, David Price, Delmon Young and Justin Upton.
Right-handed pitcher Casey Mize from Auburn will likely be the Tigers’ pick at first overall. The evaluations of Mize as the “consensus No.1” and the “safe No.1” are spot on.
He could a solid MLB starter, perhaps at top-of-the-rotation. He has a power arm, but it’s more in the 95 mph range than high 90s consistently. He has commanded the baseball very well this spring and often dominated at the top levels of the college ranks.
He has a so-called “wipeout” slider, but that definition often changes in pro ball.
Mize is an excellent prospect, but there is a high probability he won’t be the best player taken in the 2018 MLB Draft.
For it is a fickle process, one that often doesn’t remotely net the anticipated outcome.