Why India is closely watching Donald Trump’s move on Iran nuclear deal

As a major importer of Iranian crude and products, India was closely watching US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Tuesday about his decision on the Iran deal.

Trump the United States will withdraw from a 2015 international agreement designed to deny Tehran the ability to build nuclear weapons. “I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal,” Trump said ahead of the May 12 deadline for him to certify that Iran was in compliance of the deal.

Trump’s pulling the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which it signed with Iran in 2015, would re-impose oil sanctions --- leading to India being forced to re-review its list of oil suppliers as well as “Plan-B options”, according to officials who demanded anonymity.

Iran used to be India’s second largest oil supplier before the first round of sanctions, and since 2015, it has been the third largest. State-owned refiners in India, who are big importers of Iran oil, have been sympathetic clients drawn to the prospects of a batter deal by deeper freight discounts.

But that could all change.

Signing the previous certification in January, Trump had said it would be the last time he would approve the deal, something he has been critical about from the very start.

A string of leaders from allied countries that signed the agreement recently visited Washington to personally lobby Trump to stay in the deal and work towards bolstering it with additional measures.

French president Emmanuel Macro went as far as to propose “a new deal with Ira”, based on four pillars: the JCPOA, a freeze in perpetuity on Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, ending work on ballistic missiles and punishing it for malign activity in the Middle East. Trump heard him, but gave no assurances.

German Chancellor Angel Merkel went back with no guarantees either, and British foreign secretary Boris Johnson left for home on Monday after a similar meeting his counterpart secretary of state Mike Pompeo and NSA John Bolton.