Was the attack on Pakistan interior minister an attempt to delay elections?

While the motive of the man who shot and injured Pakistan's interior minister Ahsan Iqbal is still unclear, the fact that he was affiliated to the Tehreek-e-Labbaik movement has given rise to a number of theories about Sunday’s attack.

The Tehreek-e-Labbaik, headed by controversial cleric Khadim Hussain Rizvi, has long advocated the establishment of a theocracy in Pakistan, and has been agitating against the PML-N government for more than a year.

It was the same group that brought the Pakistani capital to a standstill in November 2017 and put pressure on the government of ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The Tehreek-e-Labbaik has agitated for stricter punishment of members of the Ahmadi minority as well as more action against those it sees as committing blasphemy or helping those who commit blasphemy.

Its protest against the government last year had to do with what it claimed was an attempt to change the definition of a Muslim in the Elections Bill. The movement launched by the Tehreek received popular support nationwide and put the government on the defensive.

What is more significant, however, is a clip that emerged on social media soon after the 2017 protests by the Tehreek in which a senior military official is seen handing out money to the group’s supporters. The army connection with the Tehreek-e-Labbaik suggests the shooting of Iqbal may not have been a random act of violence.

Minister of state for interior Talal Chaudhry said on Monday it was a move aimed at postponing the general election due in a few months. Observers said such a postponement of the election will help cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party and other pro-army parties. It will not help the PML-N, which wants the elections to go ahead at a time when it is seen as a victim of the military establishment, and may garner the popular vote.

The question now on everyone's mind is whether the attacker was working on his own agenda, seeing Iqbal as a representative of a party which, in his opinion, was allowing those who commit blasphemy to be elected to office, or was it a more sinister conspiracy that, if Iqbal has been killed, would have led to the postponement of elections.

Officials said the investigation into the matter will yield many interesting facts in the days to come.