After weather scare, the storm that barely was in Delhi-NCR

After attracting criticism for failing to predict the intensity of the thunderstorms and dust storms on May 2 that left over 120 dead, largely in Rajasthan and UP, IMD officials were left red-faced when the “thunderstorm and squall” they predicted would hit Delhi-NCR on Tuesday didn’t happen.

The weather department issued another warning of a storm on Tuesday evening for Delhi, Gurugram and Noida, but the maximum wind speed recorded at the Safdarjung observatory at 8.50pm was about 40kmph. The gusts of wind had reached a speed of 64kmph during Monday’s short dust storm. “Tuesday’s drizzle and thunderstorm were triggered by local clouds, which formed because of the intense heat during the day. The western disturbance that was supposed to hit Delhi on May 8 had passed on Monday night…” said Kuldeep Srivastava, scientist, regional meteorological centre.

While western disturbances lead to widespread dust storms and thunderstorms, which were part of India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) prediction on Monday, the weather phenomenon triggered by local clouds is weaker in intensity.

It was a far cry from the warning of squalls and thunderstorms in 13 states that IMD issued over the weekend, prompting schools in several states to remain closed on May 6 and 7.

“The activity (on Tuesday) has remained restricted to the hill states, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand,” KJ Ramesh, director general of IMD, said.

Higher reaches in Himachal Pradesh received snowfall, while Shimla experienced a heavy hailstorm on Tuesday. Upper reaches in Uttarakhand, places such as Badrinath and Kedarnath, where a pilgrim from Delhi died of a heart attack and nearly 400 were stranded, experienced snowfall on Tuesday.

IMD’s prediction of moderately strong winds in the Capital on Tuesday evening was borne out as was its prediction of “very light rain, drizzle accompanied with strong, gusty winds” in Delhi on Monday evening, but skies remained clear for much of Tuesday, and the intensity of both the rain and the winds was nothing out of the ordinary in a city that sees squalls every summer.

The IMD blamed unpredictable Delhi weather on a lack of clarity about how western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and a cyclonic circulation over Haryana would impact weather in the National Capital Region. “The western disturbance started affecting the hills on May 6 and moved eastwards impacting the plains,” Kuldeep Srivastava, a senior scientist at IMD, said.

A western disturbance, a system of low pressure bringing moisture from Eurasian water bodies, currently lies over Jammu and Kashmir. This system is likely to weaken in the coming days; another western disturbance will bring a fresh round of thunderstorms starting Sunday, according to IMD.

The weather agency faced criticism for poor dissemination of alerts. “It is a question of reliability; we should do some sort of reality check on how many times have the warnings come true,” said Piyoosh Rautela, a senior official in the Department of Disaster Management, Uttarakhand. “The worst is over,” Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at Skymet Weather, a private forecaster, said of Delhi NCR. “We do not expect thunderstorm activity for next 4-5 days.”