The two big problems pushing the Penguins to the brink of elimination

The Pittsburgh Penguins, the Stanley Cup winners each of the past two years, enjoyed an abundance of secondary scoring en route to those championships, especially in their series against Washington. In 2016, their third line of Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino and Phil Kessel torched the Capitals for five goals at even strength, outscoring the top two lines centered by Sidney Crosby (zero) and Evgeni Malkin (one). Last year, it again was Hagelin, Bonino and Kessel (five goals in six games), plus the fourth line centered by Matt Cullen (two goals), that did the damage. However, that has not been the case this postseason, and it’s a reason Pittsburgh trails 3-2 in the series heading into Monday night’s Game 6 in Pittsburgh.

Through Sunday, the Penguins have scored 41 goals this postseason, tying them for the most in the NHL with the Capitals and the Boston Bruins. Forward Jake Guentzel leads all scorers with 10 goals, followed by Crosby (nine, tied for second in the league), but then it starts to get sparse for Pittsburgh, especially at even strength. Against Washington, Crosby, Guentzel and Patric Hornqvist, usually a fixture on that top line as well, are the only forwards with an even-strength goal. Defensemen Jamie Oleksiak and Kris Letang have each scored a goal, bringing the team’s series total to eight.

Penguins Coach Mike Sullivan, recognizing the problem in Game 4, moved Hornqvist to the second line, giving Malkin and Hagelin a pest who can create havoc in front of the net. It didn’t work. Those two have been outscored 1-0 at even strength by Washington since then and hold only a slight edge in scoring chances created in the slot or the crease (5 to 4). The third line of Conor Sheary, Riley Sheahan and Phil Kessel managed just two scoring chances, and the fourth line, which Saturday was Tom Kuhnhackl, Derick Brassard and Bryan Rust, took only two shot attempts while allowing five. Plus, the top line of Crosby, Guentzel and Dominik Simon is less effective. Sullivan may have to go back to the drawing board if his team is to avoid elimination Monday night.

If Sullivan does find a workable combination of forward trios, it might not matter because Washington’s netminder, Braden Holtby, is outplaying Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray.

Murray has stopped 124 of 138 shots faced (an .899 save percentage) and has allowed six goals on 30 chances in the high-danger areas at even strength. Holtby has a save percentage of .915, with just two of 50 high-danger chances at even strength getting by him.

Not only is Murray performing worse than he has in playoffs past, the Penguins aren’t making it easy on him, either. Based on each goalie’s win threshold, which measures how difficult it is for a goalie to earn a win for his team, Holtby should have an easier time winning Monday’s Game 6. The win threshold formula is simply shots against minus goals for divided by shots against, which provides the save percentage at which the team would post a goal differential of zero over the course of the season. If the goalie’s save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than it loses, while anything below the threshold means the team should end up with a sub-.500 record based on the scoring rates in the shootout era. Through five games, Holtby’s win threshold is a save percentage of .881; Murray’s is .908.

“I think it comes down to character and the people that we have in our dressing room,” Sullivan said Sunday. “These guys are competitive guys, they know what it takes to win, they’re not afraid of challenges, and they embrace these types of situations. We have the utmost confidence in the group that we have.”

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