The poll maths inspiring the JD(S)-BSP alliance

CHAMRAJNAGAR: One is a flailing national party that hasn’t won a seat in 25 years in Karnataka, while the other a regional outfit fighting to retain relevance in its home state. So, why do Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Janta Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) believe their alliance for the 2018 Assembly polls is a winner?

The answer may lie in the mathematics. In the 2013 polls, JD(S) was runner-up in at least 14 seats with a margin of loss below 500 votes. Further, in 24 seats it fell short of victory by 5,000-10,000 votes. BSP amassed more than 14,000 votes in as many as 17 of these seats, cutting into the JD(S) votes.

But for BSP’s Kollegala candidate, N Mahesh, who has never won an election, there is a more compelling reason to believe that the alliance is a game changer: the attention his seat is receiving from heavyweights in BJP and Congress. Narendra Modi became the first Prime Minister to visit both Chamrajnagar and Kollegala and even began his Karnataka poll campaign in the area.

BSP last won a seat in the state in 1994, when it bagged Bidar. But Mahesh says, “Both Congress and BJP fear the coming together of Dalits and OBCs like Vokkaligas, otherwise considered upper caste. The PM praised the JD (S) founder, fuelling more talk of secret pacts, only to tell voters soon after not to waste their ballot on it. Mahesh says the PM may have changed his tack based on the constituency — where JD(S) is strong, it came in for praise, where BJP is expected to do well, he criticised JD(S).

Mayawati’s BSP, which backed the Samajwadi Party to defeat the BJP in its borough Gorakhpur in the Lok Sabha bypoll, has fielded 18 candidates in alliance with Deve Gowda’s party. Mahesh thinks its poll roster of 11 Dalits, four Lingayats, and a maratha, Kuruba (OBC) and Muslim candidate each will crack the poll arithmetic.