Deconstruction of PM’s remarks

What did Prime Minister Narendra Modi intend to achieve by his surprise praise for JD(S) supremo H.D. Deve Gowda?

“It was definitely not an off-the-cuff remark and was a well thought out strategy calculated to consolidate Vokkaliga votes to the BJP where JD(S) is weak,” a senior Vokkaliga leader from BJP said. But is it also an olive branch for a post-poll coalition if the need arises? Expressing confidence that BJP will get a majority, he said a political party needs to however “keep all options open” and JD(S) was the “only possible ally.”

He claimed there was a clear consolidation of Vokkaligas against Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, owing to his Ahinda politics even at the village level. “The Prime Minister’s statements praising Mr. Gowda, the tallest Vokkaliga leader in the State, will create a positive impression of BJP among Vokkaligas. This may help us get Vokkaliga votes in districts like Bengaluru, Chikkamagaluru, Kolar, and Uttara Kannada where there is a considerable Vokkaliga vote but JD(S) organisation is not strong to encash that,” he said.

Political analyst Sandeep Shastri said Mr. Modi heaping praise on Mr. Gowda makes sense as Congress was “enemy number one” for both JD(S) and BJP and in very few seats, the BJP and JD(S) have a direct fight. “Praising Mr. Gowda is a direct attack on Mr. Siddaramaiah, while it does not adversely impact BJP’s vote share,” he said.

He added that the remarks were also a suggestion to the electorate that more than Mr. Siddaramaiah, Mr. Gowda was the “real son of the soil” and this was an attack on Mr. Siddaramaiah’s self projection as a regional satrap.

Interestingly, Congress also seems to be pleased at the turn of events. Mr. Siddaramaiah claimed the remarks were the proof everybody was asking for the alleged covert alliance of BJP and JD(S). This, Congress hopes, will help consolidate Muslim votes. Muslims constitute 12.92% of the State’s population as per 2011 census. An electorally decisive vote, it has been traditionally shared between Congress and JD(S) apart from a few smaller Muslim parties. Mr. Modi’s statement will only further consolidate this vote in Congress’s favour, they argue.