How different regions of Karnataka have voted in past elections

Electioneering has entered its last lap in Karnataka Assembly election, which is all set for a triangular contest among the ruling Congress, lead contender the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (Secular) that is eyeing to play kingmaker after results are declared on May 15. The votes will be cast on May 12 for 224 Assembly seats in Karnataka.

Karnataka has 30 districts geographically clubbed into six regions on the basis of historical similarities. The regions are: Hyderabad Karnataka, Bombay Karnataka, Central Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka and Southern Karnataka or Old Mysore (Mysuru) region.

Hyderabad Karnataka

Hyderabad Karnataka has 40 Assembly seats. The region has sizeable population of the Lingayats and OBCs.

The Congress polled 35 per cent votes in 2013 followed by the BJP at 17 per cent and the JD(S) at 16 per cent. The KJP secured 14 per cent votes. The combined vote share of the BJP and KJP stood at 31 per cent in 2013.

The scenario changed dramatically in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, by when BS Yeddyurappa had returned to the BJP fold. In 2014, the BJP secured 47 per cent votes followed by the Congress at 45 per cent while JD(S) got only 2 per cent vote - 14 per cent less than what it polled just a year ago.

If we interpolate the vote share of the Lok Sabha polls on the Karnataka Assembly constituencies, the BJP could have won 23 seats in 2014 with the Congress pocketing the rest 17 segments.

Bombay Karnataka

Bombay Karnataka region has 50 Assembly seats. In 2013, the Congress won 30 seats in the region followed by the BJP which got 15 seats. The JD(S) won just one.

Yeddyurappa's KJP also won only one Assembly segment. Others got three seats. The Congress' vote share in 2013 was 38 per cent followed by the BJP (27 per cent), the JD(S) - 11 per cent - and the KJP (10 per cent).

In 2014, the BJP regained primacy in the region polling 51 per cent of votes while the Congress got 43 per cent seat. Going by the vote share of 2014 elections, the BJP was leading in 39 Assembly segments while the Congress was reduced to 11.

Coastal Karnataka

Coastal Karnataka has 19 seats. In 2013, when the BJP was smarting under the impact of Yeddyurappa's revolt, the Congress secured 13 seats in Coastal Karnataka.

The BJP won only three seats. In terms of vote share, the Congress polled 43 per cent votes while the BJP got 34 per cent and the JD(S) nine per cent. The KJP had polled three per cent of the votes.

A year later, the BJP secured 55 per cent votes with Congress lost three per cent votes compared to the Assembly election while the JD(S) could get only 0.3 per cent vote. In 2014, the BJP could have won 17 Assembly seats while the Congress led in two constituencies only.

Central Karnataka

The Central Karnataka region has 26 seats. In 2014, the BJP secured 46 per cent votes comfortably ahead of Congress' 37 per cent. The performance was better than the combined vote share of the BJP and KJP in 2013 Karnataka Assembly polls when they polled 33 per cent (15+18) votes.

The Congress won 15 seats in 2013 followed by JD(S) that won six seats and the BJP which pocketed four seats. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah hopes to keep Congress' lead in the region with his government's proposal for according minority status to the Lingayats.

Southern Karnataka or Old Mysore (Mysuru) region

The Old Mysore region of Karnataka has 57 Assembly segments. In 2013, the Congress got 26 of 57 seats in Old Mysore region followed by 25 won by the JD(S) and three by the BJP.

In terms of vote share, the Congress got 38 per cent votes while the JD(S) polled 34 per cent and the BJP secured eight per cent. The KJP got nine per cent vote here.

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress retained its superiority by securing 42 per cent votes that could have translated into victory at 34 Assembly seats.

The JD(S) won 29 per cent votes leading in 15 Assembly segments while the BJP got 24 per cent votes securing lead on 10 seats. Currently five Assembly seats are vacant in the Mysore region.

Bangalore region

Bangalore region has 32 seats spread over Bengaluru Urban, Bengaluru Rural, Brihan Bengaluru Metropolitan (BBMP) North, BBMP South and BBMP Central.

In 2013, the Congress won 15 seats while the BJP pocketed 12 and the JD(S) five, two of which are currently vacant. The Congress polled 41 per cent votes in 2013 followed by the BJP at 32 per cent (plus two per cent by the KJP) while the JD(S) secured 19 per cent votes.

In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP saw a surge polling 53 per cent of the votes that could have translated into victory at 24 Assembly seats. The Congress got 37 per cent or 8 Assembly seats if the Lok Sabha election votes are taken into account. The JD(S) got only six per cent votes in 2014.

Overall, the Congress had won 37 per cent votes in 2013 for 122 seats and the BJP and the JD(S) 20 per cent each for winning equal number of 40 seats. In 2014 elections, the Congress polled 41.2 per cent votes while the BJP got 43.4 per cent votes.

If 2014 vote share was interpolated on the Assembly segments in the Bangalore region, the BJP would have won 132 seats followed by the Congress at 77 and the JD(S) at 15.

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