President Trump was going to pull out of Syria immediately. Now he isn’t. He was going to ditch the North American Free Trade Agreement. Now negotiated changes are possible. He had to be talked out of pulling troops from South Korea(!), according to news reports. Now he claims he won’t be snookered into a bad deal. (Heck, he was going to give North Korea what it wanted with no deal!) He was going to avoid timetables and do what it takes to defeat the Islamic State. Now he suggests to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) he’s done with the war in Afghanistan.
And he was going to put robust tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Now the Wall Street Journal reports:
U.S. allies breathed a sigh of relief after President Donald Trump’s last-minute decision to postpone tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from some of Washington’s closest partners helped avoid a trade war, but left many questions about what comes next.
The European Union “takes note of the decision” to delay a ruling by one month, said the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, in an unenthusiastic statement.
“The U.S. decision prolongs market uncertainty, which is already affecting business decisions,” the commission said. “The EU should be fully and permanently exempted from these measures, as they cannot be justified on the grounds of national security.”
The White House said late Monday that broad tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum—already in effect against China, Russia, Japan and others—wouldn’t go into force for the EU on Tuesday as previously planned. Instead, the bloc has another month to continue negotiating with the U.S. about a new pact to avoid the tariffs.
As expected, Canada and Mexico were given an extension, also until June 1, while talks about rewriting the North American Free Trade Agreement proceed.
The E.U. has the better of the arguments against Trump’s tariffs: “European officials argue that the national-security reasons the U.S. cited for the metals tariffs thinly disguise illegal protectionism under [World Trade Organization] rules. They noted that 22 of the EU’s 28 members are also North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies of the U.S. and hold common interests in curbing actions that distort global trade, as the U.S. and EU say Chinese policies do.”
Aside from the specifics of each of these issues, the manner in which Trump operates makes it especially hard for allies to tell whether Trump even speaks for his administration. No, seriously, the foreign policy positions articulated by Trump often bear little resemblance to real-world events or to what his top advisers are saying. Trump says the Iran deal is the worst deal ever, so we’d be better off without it. But Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said in testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee last week, “It is written almost with an assumption that Iran would try to cheat, so the verification, what is in there is actually pretty robust, as far as our intrusive ability to get in. Whether or not that is sufficient, that is a valid question.” (And if we end the deal, we arguably lose the right to any inspections.)
Ultimate U.S. policy seems to depend on which foreign leader or senior adviser can present arguments that simultaneously appeal to Trump’s ego (e.g., Never before has anyone ever gotten X), help him save face after extravagant promises or contradictory pronouncements, and assist him in packaging the accomplishment as catnip for his base. If Trump were convinced that President Barack Obama was a protectionist who was wrecking trade opportunities, Trump would gladly stick with NAFTA, reengage in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and let tariffs go by the wayside — all the while claiming his actions show what putting “America first” can get you.
With a president this flaky and this ignorant, it’s nearly impossible to tell what he is bent on carrying out. What is clear is that Trump doesn’t think anything he says is binding. The grave downside of this is that no one can make a deal with someone whose word is meaningless and, moreover, our enemies tend to be unconvinced when we finally do settle on a bottom line.