The Champions League continues tonight with Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Roma and Liverpool all in action.
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Real Madrid v Bayern, Tuesday 19:45 (1st leg: 2-1)
Real’s pursuit of a third consecutive Champions League title looks in great shape following a win in Munich. That replicated their result in the first leg when these teams met at the quarter-final stage a year ago, however, just like then this tie looks far from over. Real have lost three of their last four home second legs when they’ve won the first leg, including against Juventus in the last round and Bayern last year, when extra-time was required to see them through.
Those are actually the only three home defeats Real have suffered in Europe in their last 41 matches here but we can’t avoid the feeling that this is a far from vintage Real side. They’ve kept just three clean sheets in their last 22 matches across all competitions and their Champions League home record against teams we had ranked in the top 20 in Europe since 2016/17 is a relatively modest W4-D2-L2 with both teams scoring in seven and at least four goals in five.
Bayern had the better of the first leg despite the final score and Jupp Heynckes’ side certainly have the scoring power to turn this result around. They’ve won six of their last seven away matches in Europe but, similarly to Real, they struggle to keep clean sheets as they’ve failed to record one in their last 13 on the road in the Champions League. So both teams to score looks absolutely nailed on and with nine of Bayern’s 11 trips to top-10 ranked sides in Europe since 2014/15 having at least three goals (both ‘unders’ came against defensive masters Atletico), plus six of those 11 having at least four strikes, it should pay to bank on a goal-fest.
James Rodriguez marked his reunion with his parent club with an assist for the opening goal last week and he should be one of Bayern’s biggest attacking weapons, particularly with Arjen Robben a massive doubt after going off early in the first leg. He’s got four goals in his last nine Bundesliga appearances and looks to be approaching the sort of form that saw Real sign him in the first place. So take a chance on him showing Los Blancos exactly what they’ve been missing by opening the scoring.
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Roma v Liverpool, Wednesday 19:45 (1st leg: 2-5)
Liverpool looked to be home and hosed when they led 5-0 at Anfield but two late goals have given Roma a glimmer of hope having already recovered a three goal deficit in the last round against Barcelona. However, we can’t see lightning striking twice in the Eternal City and while half of the last 12 teams to head into a Champions League semi-final second leg at home trailing on aggregate have managed to win, only one did so by more than one goal while all four defeats in this sample were by at least two-clear goals and three by even wider margins. In fact, with Roma needing to chase the game that could play perfectly into Liverpool’s hands and in those 12 matches the home side conceded 1.75 goals per game, so if you fancy the Reds it might pay to have a punt on them winning by a few.
Liverpool have been revelations in this competition as since the start of the group stages they’ve scored a staggering 3.45 goals per game. Roma have hardly been struggling in that regard either having already put three past both Chelsea and Barca here this season, while they’ve scored seven times in their last two in Serie A. Since 2008/09, 23 of the 36 (64%) European semi-finals (Europa and Champions League) have had at least three goals with the seven Champions League semis where the home side was the lower ranked team averaging 3.43 goals per game. With two such attacking teams Over 3.5 goals the likely outcome.
Edin Dzeko got Roma back into the tie with his goal last week and he netted a brace at the weekend to keep his good form going. Furthermore, he’s scored in four consecutive Champions League games so he’ll most certainly be the man Roma look to here. He also has a decent record against the Reds having struck in four of his last six starts against them and, as a result, the Bosnian looks better value than backing either side in the outcome markets and should be taken to open the scoring.
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