The Europa League continues tonight with Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Marseille and Salzburg all in action.
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Salzburg v Marseille, Thursday 20:05 (Agg: 0-2)
Marseille took control of this semi-final and they should have more than enough quality to see this over the line. However, it would be wrong to completely rule out a Salzburg side that trailed 5-2 on aggregate in the last round against Lazio only to score four goals in 20 minutes to see them through. You also need to go back to November 2016 to find the last time they lost at home in any competition as they’ve dominated domestically.
Nevertheless, we wouldn’t be backing them at close to evens. We mentioned before the first leg that Salzburg’s form looked to be in a general decline while Marseille were getting better and better and we certainly expect the French side to score at some point. Salzburg have conceded in six of seven knockout matches while Marseille have scored 15 times in the knockouts so far. Their away record in the competition this season is admittedly poor, as they’ve won just one of six games, but they’ve conceded just once in every match and with the attack looking ever more dangerous as Dimitri Payet and Florian Thauvin hit top form that promises to be enough to get at least a draw.
Payet has started six of the seven knockout matches and has contributed three goals and five assists while Thauvin has 12 goals in his last 13 Ligue 1 starts and has scored in their last two Europe League matches. With that firepower, combined with Salzburg’s impressive home record, both teams to score looks a banker. Furthermore, both teams to score has landed in seven of the 11 Europa League semi-final second legs since 2000 when the away side had won the first leg to nil.
For a longer shot, take a chance on Marseille ending that long unbeaten streak with a 2-1 score at a juicy 10/1. They’ve recorded four away wins in their six matches since the start of March but those have all come despite conceding, with a 3-2, 3-1 and a pair of 2-1 scores.
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Atletico v Arsenal, Thursday 20:05 (Agg: 1-1)
Arsenal missed a glorious chance to put this tie to bed when Atletico were reduced to 10 men after just 10 minutes at the Emirates. However, they couldn’t even hold out for the win and as a result it’s advantage Atletico.
Since 2000, there have been 82 Europa or Champions League knockout ties where the first leg finished 1-1 and the second leg has gone W40-D20-L22 in favour of the home side. Moreover, in the 56 where we had the home side as the higher ranked team in our European rankings the record improves to W30-D15-L11 with the home side progressing in 68% of matches.
The good news for Gunners fans is that suggests they have a 32% chance of making the final. The bad news is that Atletico are better than almost all the teams in that sample and are particularly strong at home. They’ve conceded just once in their last 13 European knockout matches at home as they’ve won nine times and drawn the other four 0-0. Furthermore, they've won 15 of their 16 home games in this competition after winning it back in 2012. Atleti’s recent domestic form only goes to underline these trends as they’ve kept eight consecutive clean sheets here in La Liga.
Which brings us to Arsenal’s away record. Since the start of November they’ve gone W4-D5-L9 on the road with those wins coming at the lesser lights of Burnley, Crystal Palace, Ostersunds and Milan. Moreover, they’ve lost 11 of their last 15 European trips to teams we had ranked in the top 10, so whatever way you look at it the Atletico win to nil stands out.
However, in those aforementioned 13 European home knockout matches Atletico only once scored more than twice as they routinely scored early – they were ahead at half-time in all nine of their wins and leading by 30 minutes in eight – and then protected their advantage. In fact they recorded five 1-0 wins and that’s a score we always like the look of when Atleti are at home.
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