Can Narendra Modi turn the tables in Karnataka?

Considered to be an important election that will set the political narrative for the next round of polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh later this year and the Lok Sabha election in 2019, Karnataka election on May 12, is a high stakes battle for the BJP and the Congress. The important question is: who will win the Karnataka election? The correct answer to this question would be finally known on May 15. Pre-poll opinion surveys have predicted a fractured mandate: two opinion polls last week predicted a hung assembly, while the third also predicted a similar result three weeks ago. Of the three pre-poll surveys, two have predicted the Congress to emerge as the single largest party, while the third has given the BJP a slight edge. In a triangular fight, the JD(S) will finish a distant third.

Given the probability of a fractured mandate, it is safe to presume that JD(S) could hold the key in the next government formation. Predicted to win around 35 to 40 seats, JD(S) may be in an enviable position to call the shots, considering that based on the survey numbers, the Congress and the BJP can hope to get not more than 101 and 95 seats, respectively. If the predictions hold, the Congress and the BJP will fall short of the halfway mark of 112 in the 224-seat assembly. Putting together a post-poll alliance with the JD(S), therefore, may be an unavoidable prospect for the two national parties, though it is to be seen whether the Congress gets close enough to the majority that will help it form a government with the help of Maharashtra Ekikaran Samithi and independents.

A win in Karnataka is important for both the BJP and the Congress. While it will give the BJP a foothold in the south and boost its prospects of a better performance in the next Lok Sabha poll, a win for the Congress will herald the resurgence of the party and strengthen its bargaining position with other opposition parties in 2019. Karnataka is even more significant for the BJP as well as for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. BJP needs a win to regain the momentum it lost after being defeated in recent by-polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.  Similarly, a win in Karnataka for the BJP will bolster the prime minister’s chances of a second term in Delhi. Incidentally, Karnataka is the only state on the south of Vindhyas that the BJP has ruled for a full five-year term on its own, following a surprise victory in 2008. That was five years before Modi emerged on the national political platform in 2013.

Since then, the BJP has been riding high largely on Modi’s popularity. When Modi became prime minister in May 2014, his party was in power in only seven states; now the party or its partners rule 21 of 29 states. Karnataka has often bucked the national trend. Even in 2014 Lok Sabha poll when the Modi wave swept the country, BJP won only 17 seats as compared to 9 by the Congress; in 2009 when the Congress did remarkably well in rest of the country by winning 206 seats, it won only 6 seats in Karnataka. In previous assembly elections of 2008 and 2013, the BJP won 110 and 40 seats, respectively; the Congress 80 and 122 seats respectively, while the JD(S) seat tally was 28 and 40. In the last two elections in Karnataka, the mandates were decisive in favour of one particular party. But this time it looks like a neck-to-neck contest.

Karnataka is the first state in the south where the Congress ceded political space for the first time to the opposition in 1983 when the Janata Party had emerged as the single largest party under the leadership of late Ramakrishna Hegde who became the first non-Congress chief minister of Karnataka. While Hegde scripted another stunning victory with an absolute majority in 1985 mid-term election, anti-incumbency has prevented all governments from coming back to power in Karnataka in the last 25 years. This time it appears unlikely that the opposition parties will gain much from anti-incumbency, given the poor credit-worthiness of the BJP and the JD(S) in the electorate’s perception.  Reports suggest that Siddaramaiah has clearly emerged as a formidable leader who is expected to take the Congress almost close to the halfway mark. In comparison, B S Yeddyurappa, though legally cleared of corruption charges that led to his arrest in 2011, is now a much diminished leader.

Legacy issues – allegations of corruption, sleaze scandals, communally polarising policy actions and moral policing – that the BJP government was slammed for during its rule from 2008 to 2013 are major concerns for the BJP. On the other hand, the JD(S), now more of a sub-regional, caste-based and family-dominated party which faces an identity and ideological dilemma, is mired in internal squabbles and dissensions. In comparison, the Congress has fewer worries as it appear to be a cohesive force under Siddaramaiah.

In any election, be it state or national, there are many fault lines: of caste, community, region and religion. In Karnataka, there is one more fault line: the politics of religion or the politics of Hindutva. The Congress has attempted to project itself as a party that believes in ‘humanistic’ form of Hinduism, as opposed to BJP’s overtly ‘communal’ one. The Hindu narrative is clearly visible in BJP’s campaign so far and it might pick up pace when the campaign heats up in the final lap in the next 10 days when some of the BJP’s star campaigners descend on Karnataka. But BJP’s star campaigner will be Prime Minister Modi who will hit the campaign trail in Karnataka on May 1. Modi is scheduled to address multiple rallies across the state over the next ten days which could possibly alter the current trends.

The BJP is banking on the prime minister’s popularity to turn the tide in its favour, while the Congress which has turned the election into Modi versus Siddaramaiah contest is banking on the fact that it has never won less than 35 per cent votes in the state, in Lok Sabha or assembly elections. Opinion polls have gone wrong in the past and they could go wrong in Karnataka because the relative standing of parties may change in the final phase leading up to the voting day on May 12.

The writer is an independent senior journalist.