Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address nearly 20 public meetings over the next 10-days ahead of Karnataka elections, three of which he addresses today.
The respective leaderships of the three principal political players in the contest have awaited Modi's entry into the Karnataka poll campaign with anticipation.
It has been the only imponderable in an election campaign that has followed a predictable course in the last few weeks.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s Hindutva project in Karnataka has run into the wall of deeply entrenched caste loyalties, and the absence of any significant anti-incumbency against the Siddaramaiah government.
As things stand, it has again fallen on the shoulders of the PM to rescue his party from a certain defeat, but also to stop the Congress’ march towards the majority mark of 113-seats in the 224-member assembly. The polling is on May 12, and counting of votes on May 15.
Until now, the BJP has struggled to strike a chord among voters beyond its traditional support base of Lingayats, upper castes and urban voters.
Even among the Lingayats, the Siddaramaiah government's recommendation to the Centre to grant minority status to the community is likely to eat into the BJP’s vote share, particularly where the Congress has fielded Lingayat candidates.
Several of the smaller Lingayat Mathas run educational institutions clearly understand the benefits minority status will accrue to these institutions immediately, and to the community in the long term.
While erroneous, they have conveyed to their followers that the benefits to the community would be similar to what the Scheduled Castes get.
The Vokkaligas continue to stand behind HD Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular), while there are indications that Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA – a Kannada acronym for tribals, dalits, minorities and OBCs, including Kurubas – have found a reason in his government’s social welfare schemes to continue their support to him.
People across all castes agree that BS Yeddyurappa, in terms of social welfare schemes, ran an effective government. But Siddaramaiah government has been more effective in building awareness about its schemes, which came at a crucial time. Some of the regions of the state have faced three successive years of drought.
Even the Lingayats, because of the teachings of their 12th century philosopher Basavanna, aren't as amenable to the appeal of aggressive Hindutva as in northern India.
The question gnawing BJP-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leadership and rank and file is whether Modi will be able to work his magic in Karnataka.
BJP and RSS workers on the ground are busy spreading the message of Modi's efforts at building a developed strong India, and the Congress party’s corruption.
But the Nehru-Gandhi family is still viewed positively in Karnataka, with even BJP voters remembering Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi favourably.
Most do not express any strong views about Sonia Gandhi and current Congress chief Rahul Gandhi. They, however, do say that come 2019 Lok Sabha elections they will vote for a strong leader like Modi. The BJP has won majority of the 28-Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka since 1998.
'Note ban' is something people still remember, but have moved on as they don't doubt Modi's intent. What could concern the government at the Centre is the ineffectiveness of central schemes, including Mudra Bank and Ujjwala. Apparently, banks refuse to give loans to new applicants.
The Congress has somewhat succeeded in telling farmers that while the Siddaramaiah government waived-off cooperative bank farm loans, the Modi government blocked loan waiver by scheduled banks.
The PM, however, continues to have an unblemished appeal among most sections, and is popular among the youth and middle classes. This is also the Achilles' heel of the Siddaramaiah government.
It is seen as a party of the rural poor, which hasn't addressed urban issues adequately, including infrastructure problems in Bengaluru. The middle classes and the landed, both in urban as well as rural areas, are upset at the social welfare schemes, which they believe have made the poor “lazy”, who now don't want to work in the fields or come to urban areas to work as cheap labour.
The well-off believe Siddaramaiah has divided the society on caste lines, while Modi talks of taking India forward.
In some contrast, most of the poor, across all castes, including the poorer Vokkaligas and Lingayats and not just tribals, dalits and OBCs, say they have nothing but gratitude for Siddaramaiah for helping them with the social welfare schemes in the three years of successive droughts.
This split could help Congress reach the halfway mark, but with growing urbanization in the state and improving incomes, the Congress has its work cut out if it gets a second term.
The latest CFore survey, a Karnataka based polling agency, bears out this undercurrent in favour of the Siddaramaiah government, and has forecast 118 to 130-seats for the party. It has also predicted a decline for the Janata Dal (Secular) to nearly 30-seats, from the 40 it won in the 2013 assembly election.
The survey has put the BJP at 80-seats. The survey matches with the understanding of political workers on the ground, including that of the BJP, who believe only Modi magic can get them the extra 20-seats to bring them back in contention.
However, Modi's appeal is limited by the fact that most of the electorate does not understand Hindi, and the prime minister does not weave the same magic with his words that he does in northern India.