When asked last weekend of the importance of coming back twice to win two of three games at Louisville, Virginia baseball coach Brian O’Connor was cautiously optimistic. In reality, he said, let’s see what happens next week.
Well, next week is here.
And with it brings Clemson, one of the best college baseball teams in the nation. The Cavaliers (24-17, 9-12 ACC) need to make up ground in the ACC to clinch a berth in the conference tournament and what they hope is their 15th straight NCAA Tournament.
This weekend provides Virginia an opportunity to improve its resume, improve its record, and prove it still holds a spot among college baseball’s upper echelon.
The importance of these three games against No. 10 Clemson (31-11, 14-7 ACC) cannot be understated.
Scouting Clemson
The Tigers started out this season with a 16-1 record and haven’t really looked back. They enter this weekend on a five-game winning streak, having swept Wake Forest last week before taking two weekday games against Kennesaw State and Presbyterian. Virginia’s only weekday matchup (Old Dominion) was cancelled due to weather.
Clemson has shown it’s penetrable. The Tigers blew an eight-run lead in the ninth inning at home against a light-hitting Miami squad. It was swept at home by N.C. State. The Tigers are 0-2 against Georgia this season.
However, what Clemson does not have are any truly bad losses. When we broke down UNC earlier this season, we saw a slew of questionable weekday losses. Even No. 1 Florida has lost two straight weekday games in confusing fashion. The Tigers have handled their business this year.
And Clemson’s success, by looking at some of the numbers, might be surprising. The Tigers don’t have a single regular player hitting over .300. As a team, they hit just .251, and have 338 hits this season while giving up 334. That’s a small discrepancy for a team 20 games over .500.
The difference comes in the home runs. The Tigers have hit 61 of them and given up just 26. Seth Beer and Chris Williams each have 11 and have combined for 74 RBI. No Cavalier has more than three homers.
Clemson also has a consistent trio of weekend starters that have been solid all season long.
Probable pitchers
Friday
» Virginia: RHP Derek Casey (5-2, 3.15 ERA, 68.2 IP, 15 BB, 82 SO)
» Clemson: LHP Jacob Hennessy (3-2, 3.25 ERA, 55.1 IP, 14 BB, 43 SO)
Casey has been Virginia’s workhorse all season. His elongated Friday performances have set up UVa’s bullpen well, and set him up well for a nice draft slot this June. Casey’s streak of 18.2 scoreless innings was snapped in a loss against Louisville last Friday. Hennessy lasted just two innings against Wake Forest last week. He’s only pitched seven innings in a start twice this season.
Saturday
» Virginia: LHP Daniel Lynch (3-3, 3.99 ERA, 67.2 IP, 16 BB, 79 SO)
» Clemson: RHP Brooks Crawford (4-2, 3.54 ERA, 48.1 IP, 12 BB, 29 SO)
Lynch has struggled early in his last two starts against UNC and Louisville. But, as his innings counter will tell you, his bad starts usually don’t mean early exits. The Cavaliers have not won many Saturday games, but Lynch has done a good job of putting Virginia in a good position to win with quality outings. Crawford does not strike batters out much, and he doesn’t walk many either. He’s coming off a seven-inning outing against WFU. Eight of his 10 starts have been five innings or fewer.
Sunday
» Virginia: RHP Noah Murdock (1-0, 3.00 ERA, 3.0 IP, 1 BB, 1 SO)
» Clemson: LHP Jake Higginbotham (6-1, 3.44 ERA, 52.1 IP, 15 BB, 40 SO)
Murdock likely will pitch 2-3 innings, depending on his effectiveness on Sunday. He pitched two scoreless innings against Louisville in his second appearance back from Tommy John surgery. If he continues to build up his innings and shows the ability to get people out, his presence will be crucial for UVa down the stretch. Higginbotham has allowed only four homers and 13 extra-base hits all season. Like Clemson’s other two weekend starters, he doesn’t pitch that deep into games, but has shown a capability of completing seven innings.
Stat to know
The Tigers have lost in the regional round of the NCAA Tournament each of the past seven seasons, including the last two at home.
New and notes
» Caleb Knight was inserted into last Saturday’s lineup after being on-again, off-again injured this season. He was replaced in the middle of the game because of the injury. He returned to pinch-run on Sunday, but is still clearly battling the effects of his undisclosed ailment.
» Virginia might not have many true power hitters, or, at least, developed ones, but Andy Weber has 16 doubles this season, which ranks 20th in all of college baseball. Only Louisville’s Logan Wyatt has more in the ACC.
» Devin Ortiz was inserted in the lineup against left-handed pitching last week and delivered with two hits and two RBI. Clemson will start two lefties this weekend.
» Clemson won two of three games at home last season, outscoring Virginia 19-9 during the series. The Cavaliers came back to beat the Tigers, 10-2, in the ACC Tournament.