Finland has been giving $685 a month to unemployed people — could it ever happen here?

Finland’s experiment in handing out monthly cash payments to unemployed people is ending, but the buzz around universal basic income is only growing in the U.S., where fans of the idea include Facebook  Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg. Could it ever happen here?

The idea, a favorite of the left, isn’t likely to happen on a national level any time soon. But in some states, universal basic income could become a reality in the next few years, said Ioana Marinescu, a University of Pennsylvania assistant professor who’s studied the effects of universal basic income, or UBI for short.

“A big UBI is not on the horizon, but smaller amounts are definitely possible in the short to medium run at the state level because states have a lot of autonomy,” Marinescu said.

Proponents see UBI as a tool for lifting people out of poverty and critics say it’s an expensive handout that discourages recipients from seeking jobs. Tesla   founder Elon Musk has said UBI will be a natural consequence of increasing automation. Though the concept is trendy at the moment, it’s not new. U.S. President Richard Nixon supported a basic income, but his plan never made it out of the experimental phase.

Alaska already has a version of it

Finland’s UBI program is a pilot version limited to 2,000 randomly selected unemployed people, but in its purest form UBI is a payment that all residents of a country would receive, regardless of income level or employment status. Participants in the Finnish pilot get $685 a month, and the payments don’t stop if they get a job.

When Finnish politicians proposed expanding it to include employed Finns, the government rejected their request for more funding. Bringing the UBI to all Finns could raise taxes by 30%, a recent Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development report found.

Finland is one of several countries currently testing various versions of the UBI.

Others include Kenya, Scotland, The Netherlands and Uganda. An Oakland, Calif. nonprofit founded by a tech entrepreneur hopes to launch a UBI program for 3,000 people in two states (which haven’t yet been announced). There’s been a version of it in place in the U.S. since the early 1980s. Residents of Alaska receive an annual cash payment funded by the state’s oil reserve royalties. In 2015, every resident received more than $2,000.

Researchers are conflicted on its effects

The OECD report on Finland’s program concluded that an expanded UBI program would “lead to a drastic redistribution of income and likely increase poverty.”

But a study by Marinescu and co-researcher Damon Jones of the University of Chicago found that — contrary to fears about UBI discouraging people from seeking work — the Alaska version of UBI hasn’t kept people from entering the workforce. In fact, it increased rates of part-time work, the study found.

“A key concern with a universal basic income is that it could discourage people from working, but our research shows that the possible reductions in employment seem to be offset by increases in spending that in turn increase the demand for more workers,” Jones wrote.

Another analysis by Marinescu concluded that UBI “can improve health and educational outcomes, and decrease criminality and drug and alcohol use, especially among the most disadvantaged youths.”

Some cities and states are exploring a universal basic income

The concept has also gained traction in a handful of states including Hawaii, California and Washington. Stockton, Calif. launched a UBI pilot program in 2018, and California Democrats recently added UBI to their official party platform. One way states like California could pay for UBI would be through a carbon tax, which Marinescu says would provide a “feasible” funding source.

Low-income Stockton residents will temporarily receive about $500 a month and the city will evaluate the results after 12 to 18 months. Critics say the program isn’t a wise financial move for Stockton, which declared bankruptcy in the wake of the real estate crash.

Jason Furman, who chaired then-President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers and is now a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, has said he doesn’t support UBI because it would probably require “huge increases in taxes,” he told the San Francisco Chronicle. “We should put more effort into how to create jobs and prepare people for jobs in the future,” he said. Universal basic income “is giving up on work and giving up on people. I’m not prepared to do that.”