Karnataka heading for a photo-finish: Times Now-VMR survey

The Times Now-VMR survey in poll bound Karnataka shows that state heading for an absolute photo-finish, with both BJP and Congress almost neck and neck, and way it looks now, HD Kumaraswamy, JDS chief could well play the role of King maker.

In the 224 member assembly, incumbent Congress is likely to get 91 seats while BJP is just two seats behind with 89 seats, JDS gets 40. If polls were held now neither Chief Minister Siddaramaiah nor Yeddyurappa are in a position to form a government as they are both well short of 112 mark.

In Central Karnataka BJP has made massive inroads winning 22 of the 35 seats, in 2013 assembly elections BJP could get only 4. Congress’s numbers have gone down from 19 in last elections to 10 now, JDS settles for 3 seats.

In Coastal Karnataka were religious polarisation is a determinant, BJP has made a small increase in its seat share with the party winning 8 of the 21 seats.

Greater Bengaluru region seems to be endorsing Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, Congress with 17 seats is well ahead of BJP which has managed 13.

It is in Old Mysore region that JDS with its Vokkaliga vote base has made a clean sweep, they are likely to win 25 out of 55 seats. BJP has taken a beating winning just 8 while Congress retains a respectable 20 seats.

Siddaramaiah’s move of giving separate religion status to Lingayat doesn’t seem to be have changed the mood completely, as in Mumbai Karnataka region, which is the hotbed of Lingayat politics, Congress has been given 21 seats while BJP gets 23.

When the respondents were asked who their choice for Chief Minister was, the answer was loud and clear, more than 46% votes went to Siddaramaiah, Yeddyurappa polled about 32% and HDK got 17.63%.

The survey conducted by VMR for Times Now was done between 4th April and 16th April. More than 4000 respondents were surveyed through stratified random sampling spread across all the six regions of the state. The constituencies were carefully chosen to be representative of the behaviour of the each region and thus the entire state. The survey has a margin of error of 3% at the estimation of votes with a 95% confidence level.

Takeaways (overall)

- BJP catching up with Congress, poised to improve with PM's campaign
-Lingayat consolidation behind Congress, neutralised by BJP's social engineering
- Projection bursts notion that BJP is losing steam ahead of 2019.

OVERALL SEAT SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	91	122	-31
BJP	89	40	+49
JDS+BSP	40	40	0
Others	4	22	-18
Total	224	224

OVERALL VOTE SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	38.6	36.59	+2.01
BJP	35.03	19.89	+15.14
JDS+BSP	21.33	20.19	+1.14
Others	5.04	23.33	-18.29

REGION 1: Mumbai Karnataka

Why it's important
-This is the hotbed of Lingayat politics
-Yeddy's Lingayat identity advantage checked
-BJP's Dalit outreach checks Lingayat attrition

SEAT SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	21	31	-10
BJP	23	13	+10
JDS+BSP	5	1	+4
Others	1	5	-4
Total	50	50

VOTE SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	39.76%	37.98%	+1.78
BJP	40.39%	27.43%	+12.96
JDS+BSP	18.45%	10.89%	+7.56
Others	1.4%	23.7%	-22.3

QUESTION - HAS CONGRESS' LINGAYAT CARD INFLUENCED YOUR VOTE?

YES - 39.12%

NO - 38.32%

CAN'T SAY - 22.56%

TAKEAWAY - LINGAYAT MASTERSTROKE QUEERS BJP'S LINGAYAT PITCH

REGION 2: Coastal Karnataka

Why it's important
-Karnataka's most religiously polarised part
-The BJP is banking on hindu consolidation
- Poll predicts BJP gains, but Congress stays ahead

SEAT SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	11	13	-2
BJP	8	5	+3
JDS+BSP	2	0	+2
Others	0	3	-3
Total	21	21

VOTE SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	46.79%	41.54%	+5.25
BJP	42.64%	34.37%	+8.27
JDS+BSP	2.34%	10.05%	-7.71
Others	8.23%	14.04%	-5.81

QUESTION - Will Yogi Adityanath's 'star campaigner' status help bjp?

YES - 40.37%

NO - 38.12%

CAN'T SAY - 21.51%


TAKEAWAY - Yogi campaign serves purpose to polarise


QUESTION - Has murder of rationalists influenced your vote?

TO SOME EXTENT - 46.93

LARGE EXTENT - 28.76%

NOT AT ALL - 24.31%

TAKEAWAY - Most voters unfazed by murder of rationalists


QUESTION - Whom do you blame for murders of rationalists - Hindu Right or poor law & order?

LAW & ORDER - 58.18%

HINDU RIGHT - 41.82%


TAKEAWAY - Hindu Right not seen as culpable

REGION 3: Greater Bengaluru

Why it's important
-Dense concentration of urban seats
-Decisive region, BJP has most at stake
-If BJP wins 2/3rd of 32 Seats, It can cross 100

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	17	15	+2
BJP	13	12	+1
JDS+BSP	2	5	-3
Others	0	0	0
Total	32	32

VOTE SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	42.35%	40.28%	+2.07
BJP	34.97%	31.13%	+3.84
JDS+BSP	20.06%	20.07%	-0.01
Others	2.62%	8.52%	-5.9

QUESTION - What do you make of Siddaramaiah's 'Kannada Pride' plank?

TIMELY - 43.65%

POLITICAL GIMMICK - 31.78%

EXTREME - 13.12%

DON'T CARE - 11.45%


TAKEAWAY - 'Kannada First' trumps caste and 'Hindutva'


REGION 4: Central Karnataka

Why it's important
-Land of Yeddy & Reddy mining barons
-Crucial region for the BJP'S Prospects
-Survey predicts major gains for BJP

SEAT SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	10	19	-9
BJP	22	4	+18
JDS+BSP	3	7	-4
Others	0	5	-5
Total	35	35

VOTE SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	34.28%	36.05%	-1.77
BJP	41.45%	14.01%	+27.44
JDS+BSP	16.19%	16.5%	-0.31
Others	8.09%	33.44%	-25.35

QUESTION - Is Yeddyurappa's controversial past hurting BJP?

NO - 39.59%

YES - 32.12%

CAN'T SAY - 28.29%


TAKEAWAY - Yeddyurappa not a liability

REGION 5: Hyderabad Karnataka

Why it's important
-Tribal territory with sizeable minority population
-Yeddyurappa expected to bring back BJP votes
-Only region where BJP replicates 2014 result according to survey

SEAT SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	12	19	-7
BJP	15	4	+11
JDS+BSP	3	4	-1
Others	1	4	-3
Total	31	31

VOTE SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	40.4%	34.57%	-5.83
BJP	43.39%	17.06%	+26.33
JDS+BSP	15.22%	17.57%	-2.35
Others	0.99%	30.88%	-29.89

NO QUESTIONS


REGION 6: Old Mysuru

Why it's important
-Vokkaliga belt, biggest region
-Make or break region
-Presence of JD(S) hurting Congress more

SEAT SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	20	25	-5
BJP	8	2	+6
JDS+BSP	25	23	+2
Others	2	5	-3
Total	55	55

VOTE SHARE

Party	2018 (Survey)	2013	Swing
Congress	33.9%	32.93%	+0.97
BJP	19.58%	7.09%	+12.49
JDS+BSP	36.95%	34.79%	+2.16
Others	9.56%	25.19%	-15.63

QUESTION - Who do you think is best suited to become chief minister?

SIDDARAMAIAH (CONG) - 46.15%

YEDDYURAPPA (BJP) - 31.76

HD KUMARASWAMY (JDS) - 17.63%

G PARAMESHWARA (CONG) - 0.95%

MALLIKARJUN KHARGE (CONG) - 0.7%

ESHWARAPPA (BJP) - 0.44%

OTHERS - 2.37%


TAKEAWAY - Siddaramaiah's popularity exceeds that of the Congress