The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its preliminary first-quarter growth figure on Friday. According to the Atlanta Fed consensus tracker, economists are predicting gross domestic product to have risen at a meager 2% annual rate. But a powerful behind-the-scenes indicator suggests the real rate may turn out to be significantly higher.
“Gross output,” or GO, reflects the full value of the supply chain—the business-to-business spending that moves all goods and services toward the final retail market. Based on my work...