Combat terrorism through economic growth

If Afghanistan has to emerge as a strong and independent democracy, the campaign for its economy must stand on equal footing with the counter-terrorism campaign. In fact, they are one and the same

Syria, North Korea and Yemen have largely dominated the headlines. But Afghanistan also remains in the global conscience. If anything, the much-needed international focus on the campaign against the Taliban has outlined how difficult the fight has become despite our steady military gains. Frustrated with what many are mistakenly calling a quagmire, international commentators either advocate for a quick-fix peace deal to withdraw from Afghanistan or engage in a more intense military campaign. The latter is an understandable response, but even so, it is far from a complete remedy.

The war in Afghanistan is not being waged on the battlefield alone: If we are to emerge as a strong and independent democracy, the campaign for Afghanistan’s economy must stand on equal footing with counter-terrorism campaign. In fact, they are one and same. We can’t build schools during firefights but without schools, the firefights will continue. Yet a disproportionate amount of international resources — provided by each contributing country — have been devoted to military operations at the cost of job creation and long-term economic development. But it is more jobs — not just more bullets — that will help persuade militant fighters to lay down their weapons.

Fortunately, Afghanistan is endowed with natural resources  like copper, iron ore and other minerals — and can largely finance its own development, though only if the country receives the necessary investment and technical assistance from the international community. Although Afghanistan has some three trillion dollars of minerals, we lack the transportation network to export these resources.

Building the necessary infrastructure for railroads, highways, processing plants will not only facilitate the mining industry but also create jobs. A sustainable livelihood will immediately weaken the insurgency and its base, a destitute populace, while a modern transportation network that links Afghanistan with its neighbours will spur long-term growth.

Drug production in Afghanistan is another key problem that can be addressed by economic development. We know from international experience that global demand for narcotics finds a ready supply in nations where governance is weak, instability high and poverty rampant. But if Afghanistan’s agriculture sector is thoroughly revitalised, fewer farmers will rely on opium harvesting to make a living. Instead, they could grow wheat, pomegranates, saffron and other high-value crops. As agribusiness becomes profitable and sustainable, it will drive down the cost of food for Afghanistan’s poor and raise rural incomes, which should in turn further weaken the insurgency in crucial provinces like Helmand and Kandahar.

Energy is another pivotal factor to earn the trust of the Afghans. Without a comprehensive electricity grid, Afghanistan can hardly achieve a productive economy. The availability of electricity can open an incredibly large market for electronic goods, expanding consumer consumption. Just as importantly, the Afghan people could finally reap the benefits of a globalised world through use of the Internet, to which, less than 15 per cent of the population currently has access.

Further, corruption can be stemmed when the abuse of power is no longer necessary as a means of economic uplift. Corruption is a symptom, not a cause, of weak governance, which can only be strengthened when Afghan civil servants are adequately trained and paid competitive salaries on a sustainable basis. Even a driver at an international NGO or a United Nations agency earns at least five times more than a civil servant working for the Afghan Government. This situation cannot be improved unless more resources are channelled away from aid agencies into Afghan national Budget as an efficient mechanism of resource allocation.

US President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton once argued: “Religious fanatics, and their grievances, do not arise from poverty or deprivation.”  To the contrary, many Taliban fighters join the insurgency simply to earn a living. A significant number of these ‘rented’ Talibans can be made to turn swords into ploughshares if they are given alternative opportunities.

International security is closely tied to the nascent Afghan economy. Without stability, the Taliban will continue to enjoy widespread support. If we rely on military alone, how will the outcome in Afghanistan differ from that of  the US forces in Vietnam, the French in Algeria or the Soviets in Afghanistan?

However, the good news is that Afghanistan has quickly recovered from an economic depression, which followed the withdrawal of international forces from the country in 2014. Thanks to the austere economic reforms introduced by President Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan economy is being transformed, as unprecedented economic legislation has been passed, opening opportunities across new sectors and reducing bureaucratic bottlenecks that encourages regional and global businesses to invest in Afghanistan’s virgin markets.

Consequently, this year alone, Afghanistan has so far signed more than $500 million in investment contacts. It is estimated that the country will see a boost in its GDP growth from 2.5 to four per cent in the coming years. To reinforce Afghanistan’s peace and war-fighting efforts, regional and global stakeholders should channel more resources to build the Afghan economic recovery, helping the country to create more jobs for its youth. Doing so, will effectively deny regional and transnational terrorist networks the opportunity to exploit Afghanistan’s rife poverty in order to continue to fuel their terror campaign in the country and world over.

(The writer is the Director-General of Policy & Strategy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan, and formerly served as the country's Deputy Chief of Mission to India)