Euro zone business growth slowed again in April but still strong - PMI

Reuters 

By Jonathan Cable

Having peaked in January, growth has steadily slowed in the bloc as a strong and fears that a trade spat between and the could deepen affects demand and confidence.

IHS Markit's composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the zone, seen as a good guide to economic health, held steady in April at March's 14-month low of 55.2, defying a poll forecast of a fall to 54.9.

Earlier data showed improvements in and France, the bloc's two biggest economies and the only ones to publish readings.

"It's a good reading, it's still encouraging," said Chris Williamson, at IHS Markit, of the zone numbers. He said the PMI pointed to quarterly GDP growth of 0.6 percent, matching the prediction in a poll.

"It's very much suggestive of the ECB being in territory where it should be thinking about unwinding stimulus -- and certainly not adding to it."

The will end its asset purchase programme this year and hike interest rates in 2019, a poll found this month, although policymakers may be concerned to see inflationary pressures easing alongside weakening growth.

The ECB's rate-setting meets on Thursday.

Inflation in the bloc was just 1.3 percent in March, a long way from the ECB's 2 percent target, and this month the output prices PMI fell to 53.2 from 53.5.

That easing price pressure helped a PMI covering the bloc's dominant services industry to confound expectations and nudge up to 55.0 from 54.9 in March. It was expected to be 54.6.

To meet the still strong demand, firms took on staff at the fastest rate since the tail-end of 2007. The employment sub-index jumped to 55.0 from 54.1.

Manufacturing growth waned in April, however, with the factories PMI falling to a 14-month low of 56.0 from 56.6, just shy of a median forecast for 56.1. An index measuring output which feeds into the composite PMI, dipped to a 17-month low of 55.8 from 55.9.

Factories are bearing the brunt of a strong euro, up well over 2 percent against the dollar so far this year and expected to strengthen further, and new export order growth dwindled.

Its sub-index, which includes trade between member countries, fell to 53.7 from 54.8, an 18-month low.

"This is where you are getting conflicting signals. Order book inflows are down but firms are still hiring in good numbers. There is a strong indication the stronger is hurting exporters," Williamson said.

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Mon, April 23 2018. 13:42 IST