
Trump, Kim head for unpredictable territory
Published 6:00 pm, Thursday, April 19, 2018
Anyone who believes President Donald Trump is capable of launching policy positions which shock and awe was probably not surprised when on March 8 he imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from allies including South Korea and Japan. And then within hours he spontaneously accepted a just-received invitation to personally meet North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, to discuss the North's nuclear program, a presidential decision made without consultation with his National Security Council, nor with the congressional leadership or our allies.
On the other hand, anyone who believed Kim was immature, mercurial and unbalanced was surely surprised to learn that he reversed his position and offered unconditional direct talks, declaring, probably most surprisingly, that he would suspend nuclear and missile tests during the talks, and that he would not object to the scheduled annual U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises.
In short, Kim has upended Asian politics between and among our allies, South Korea and Japan, our adversary, North Korea, and our competitor, China. That this is true has been commented on by both supporters and detractors of the president. But what commentators have so far failed to point out is that Kim has taken a card from the Nixon-Kissinger deck. Just as the former president surprisingly opened relations with China and thereby played the Soviet Union and China off each other, Kim is now doing the same with China and the U.S.
North Korea has become increasingly dissatisfied with relations with both China and the U.S. While China did not agree with the recent U.S. proposal to interdict oil tankers headed for North Korea, China has in fact voted for a wide range of escalating U.S. sponsored economic sanctions in the United Nations against the North. Mr. Kim is now basically telling the Chinese to ease off otherwise it will keep the U.S. fully engaged in Asia, something the Chinese obviously do not want, despite President Trump's stated policy of distancing the U.S. from alliance relationships. And Mr. Kim is basically telling the U.S. the North can handle both its economy and China without sacrificing its nuclear independence. This message to Washington has obviously been greatly reinforced by Mr. Kim's dramatic recent visit to China.
Kim's surprise offer to meet Trump without preconditions has catapulted him into a canny and clever leader. North Korea has now obtained a modicum of international legitimacy: Mr. Kim has met with China's President Xi Jinping, and he will soon meet with South Korea's President Moon Jae-in, and then Mr. Kim, a brutal dictator, will meet tete-a-tete with the president of the United States.
On the other hand, Trump's dazzling and dizzying decisions, most recently walking back some of the tariffs he announced only weeks ago, upset our allies as they are far less certain about U.S. stability and how U.S. policy is made that affects their interests.
Bringing these two unpredictable leaders together (if in fact the meeting takes place), brings to mind the prediction made by Herodotus, the 5th century B.C. Greek historian: "Arrogance will reap a rich harvest of tears."
David Lenefsky lives in Ulster County and practices law in Manhattan. He formerly served as project director at the United Nations Association-USA.