The Vegas Golden Knights continue their storybook season with a sweep of the Los Angeles Kings in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Golden Knights become the first modern-era expansion team in the NHL, NBA, NFL or MLB to win its division in its debut season and the first franchise in league history to sweep a postseason series in its inaugural campaign.
Goaltender and two-time Stanley Cup champion Marc-Andre Fleury, acquired by Vegas in the expansion draft, stopped 127 of the 130 shots he faced in the series, including 31 of 32 scoring chances in the slot or crease. Since 2005-06, only Tuuka Rask (.985 overall save percentage) and Michal Neuvirth (.981) posted better save rates than Fleury (.977) in a playoff series.
Like the Golden Knights, the Sharks can roll four lines deep. Nine players for San Jose scored at least one goal and 15 had at least one point against Anaheim — only the Pittsburgh Penguins (16) have more this postseason. The Sharks top line of Joe Pavelski, Evander Kane and Joonas Donskoi combined for 12 points (five goals and seven assists) but needs to be better at even strength: they were outshot 18 to 31 and produced fewer scoring chances (18 top 27) than the Ducks over 47 minutes of ice time.
The Golden Knights will face the San Jose Sharks in the second round, and that has boosted Vegas’ title hopes from 17 to nearly 22 percent. The Tampa Bay Lightning, who enjoy a 3-1 series lead over the New Jersey Devils, have the second-highest chance of winning the Stanley Cup this year at 17.3 percent.
Our postseason probabilities are based on the win rates that fuel our weekly power rankings and take into account a team’s actual win-loss record; its expected win-loss record based on goals scored and allowed, also known as its Pythagorean winning percentage; and its expected win-loss record based on expected goals for and against, a metric created by hockey metrics website Corsica, which takes into account the likelihood a shot becomes a goal based on distance, angle and whether the attempt was a rebound, on the rush or generated on the power play.
As the Stanley Cup playoffs unfold, we’ll provide updated win probabilities for every team in the postseason. We’ll update these odds at the conclusion of every series, so you can see whether your favorite team (or most-hated rival) is in position to hoist the Cup or be sent home earlier than expected.
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