James Manor, political scientist and professor at the School of Advanced Study, University of London, has been studying
Karnataka politics and administration for well over four decades. He is also known for crunching voting numbers and analysing election results. In 'Broadening and Deepening Democracy', which he co-authored with E Raghavan, Manor dwells on the times of Devaraj Urs, R
Gundu Rao and Ramakrishna Hegde, detailing the pressures of political survival and innovative strategies. He tells Jayanth Kodkani histories of states or records of policies cannot ignore political players because "there's no Hamlet without the prince".
In recent times, pre-election calculations seem to hover around 80-100 seats for each of the national parties in Karnataka. Ultimately it's about the fight for 40-50 seats. Why does this happen?
It's a phenomenon in recent elections because of the threecornered contest, plus the fact that BJP is mainly rooted in northern districts and because the Congress vote is more evenly distributed across the state than the vote of the other two parties. However, surveys before the current election suggest that BJP may be trailing more than in recent elections, and Congress may realistically hope for a majority - the first since 1985. Ramakrishna Hegde was the last CM who was re-elected.
After 1989, no single party has crossed the 150-mark. This may be because of three major parties holding sway, but would it also mean that no party has been able to lead a wave?
That's right. There have been no waves, partly I think because Karnataka voters are too sober, sophisticated and disinclined to become overly excited. Nor has the state thrown up an excitingly charismatic figure - like film stars in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. And yes, the presence of three parties makes it hard to win more than 120.
Purely from the point of view of political history, is there anything strikingly different in this election?
If the C fore polls in August and March are reliable, then the ruling party has a good chance at re-election which is historically surprising since no one has done that for over three decades.
Will the recent Dalit assertiveness and anger across India find resonance?
Dalit anger has, according to the C fore poll, become important. Not only right hand Dalits but many left hand Dalits seem upset with BJP. Those on the left hand have backed BJP in recent elections. One major reason appears to be the politically unwise comments by Anantkumar Hegde about changing the Constitution.
How do you see the campaign themes of the three major parties?
Congress has fought mostly on its record, on claims that the Centre has been ungenerous. JD(S) has campaigned on bread and butter issues like lack of help to farmers, water shortage especially in southern districts, etc. These issues have an appeal. The BJP choice of issues was made with little listening to state leaders - unlike cleverly chosen bread and butter issues in the 2003 state election in Madhya Pradesh, which they won.
Is it crucial for JD(S) - which has been out of power for a decade - to be in the government in some form this time for it to remain relevant?
Yes, JD(S) badly needs to share power in a coalition. They may win enough seats to do that because of several years of drought and water shortages for which the government may not be at fault, and because Congress missed a chance a couple of years ago to woo Vokkaligas away from JD(S). But my guess is JD(S) may not win enough seats to hold the balance of power.
Some observers believe Siddaramaiah's moves for a separate state flag and the bigger gamble of a minority card for Lingayats are crafty changes in the narrative. Would you agree?
We have no basis for judging the impact of these two issues. The flag is unlikely to have a major influence. The
Lingayat issue is hard to judge. One of the shrewdest observers of politics in northern districts says it will not matter much at all. Others think it could produce an anti-Congress backlash among Lingayats. Still others think it will undermine Lingayat support for the BJP... so wait and see.
How important is governance?
Governance by the state government will be important, and so will governance by BJP at the Centre. Hindutva themes and name-calling by BJP, the CM's
Kannada assertiveness, fears among Dalits about BJP intentions… Caste, candidate selection and factionalism will also count. It's the usual complex picture.
