Monsoon hattrick

Near normal rains for third year in a row is good news but let’s not ignore the crisis in agriculture

The Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD's) prediction of a near normal monsoon for the third successive year is crucial for two reasons. First, it bodes well for the overall growth of the economy as well as for the agriculture sector, both of which have been reeling under severe stress. Our farmers, who are heavily dependent on the IMD's forecast to prepare themselves for agricultural output, will breathe a sigh of relief as a normal monsoon means a productive farm. Combined with this is the huge budgetary allocation by the Union Government for the agricultural sector this year. Economically, for a still significantly agrarian nation like India, a good/bad monsoon has far-reaching consequences. The agriculture sector even today contributes 17-18 per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (up to 20 per cent by some estimates). Consequently, a good monsoon will lead to healthy agricultural output and thus lead to an increase in gross value-added growth buoying up the economy. And a bad monsoon could lead to a spike in inflation. Secondly, given we are in an election year, a good monsoon holds the key to the fortunes of political parties, especially the ruling party. A bad monsoon would mean more trouble for the Government as it could lead to increasing farmer unrest — a failed crop season results in demands for loan-waivers. As it is, farmers' protests have become almost a daily phenomenon and we have witnessed farmers' agitations against alleged Government apathy from Maharashtra in the West to Odisha in the East.

But to read the IMD's rain prediction as a panacea would be a big mistake by the ruling dispensation as that would elide the long-term and structural problems India faces, water scarcity being on top of that list. Behind the good news of the expectation of a normal monsoon are some sobering truths that must be faced. Juxtaposed with the Met department's promise of plentiful rains are the extremely dry conditions prevalent in several parts of the country. With winter rains having played truant last year, the situation looks a little grim for these areas. IMD itself states that mild to extremely dry conditions are prevalent in 404 districts of the country because of poor rainfall last year. Out of 404 districts, about 140 districts have been termed as having been “severely dry” between October 2017 and March 2018. In fact, shortages have already begun to hurt — last month, for example, the Gujarat Government stopped irrigation water supply owing to low levels in the Sardar Sarovar Dam. To top it all, the IMD itself has been called out several times for tardy functioning in the past and its predictions have been unreliable.

The crux of the matter is: Why should a rain-deprived country be dependent on the monsoon at all? To solve the water problem, we must learn to conserve water and come up with effective water management strategies. Equally, farmers must be trained in the use of modern technologies and encouraged not to go in for water-intensive crops.