As BJP blinks, Uddhav has tough act to follow

It was a weak copy cat act, shadow of the original, yet the public interview of chief minister Devendra Fadnavis by Shiv Sena MP and editor of ‘Saamana’ , Sanjay Raut, ended up revealing much more than was said on the surface. Raut was no Raj Thackeray and Fadnavis not a match to Sharad Pawar who had been in complete control of both interview and interviewer at his alma mater in Pune a few weeks ago. Fadnavis and Raut were in conversation at the Lokmat Maharashtrian of the Year awards last week, and both could be seen attempting to keep their animosity towards each other’s parties strictly under check. Yet when Fadnavis said Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray could have been the Maharashtra chief minister had he not broken the alliance in 2014, it was obvious that things had come full circle with the BJP. For it was not the Shiv Sena that broke the alliance but the BJP which pushed its ally’s back to the wall and did its darnedest to destroy the Shiv Sena at a time when Narendra Modi’s graph was at its peak and the party felt they needed no one or nothing to come to power on their own.

Today, with allies dropping off one after the other and the party’s currency at an all-time low, the BJP is making overtures to the Shiv Sena again. For it is obvious that even if the Sena keeps its head above water on its own in 2019, the BJP, which is already doing very badly at several by-elections in the state and elsewhere, is likely to be devastated. Fadnavis gave himself away by making a reference to “so-called secular parties” more than once – in all likelihood the Congress and the NCP are coming together again for the 2019 polls and this time the BJP needs the Shiv Sena more than the other way round. But now it is Uddhav Thackeray’s turn to send them packing and it is no wonder he refused to meet state finance minister Sudhir Mungantiwar who has been entrusted with the task of restarting talks for the alliance.

Mungantiwar is no Pramod Mahajan and the BJP today is in desperate need of a facilitator like him, not just in Maharashtra but also the Centre. I remember during the 1998 elections when L K Advani had sensed that the BJP would win big, the party had similarly tried to push Bal Thackeray against the wall on the seat sharing formula. They never dreamt Thackeray would call off the alliance but when, at a public meeting in Aurangabad, he announced that the Sena would teach “Kamlabai” a lesson, BJP leaders panicked. ‘Kamlabai’ was a clear reference to the BJP party symbol, the lotus, and that brought Mahajan and Gopinath Munde hotfooting to Matoshree. They had to cool their heels for hours in the waiting room as Thackeray was said to be “resting” to shore up his energies for the campaign ahead. Advani who realised his mistake in pushing Thackeray too far, fared no better as his rest proved more important to the Sena supremo than any BJP leader. Mahajan knew he needed some desperate measure so he sent an SOS to Atal Behari Vajpayee who flew down from Delhi. Only then did Thackeray give up the pretence of resting and that’s how Mahajan, Munde and Advani got a look-in again at Thackeray’s residence. The Sena supremo drove a hard bargain taking several prized seats, particularly in Thane, from the BJP - handing his ally a few duds elsewhere in the state in return!

Then, as now, the BJP had felt that the Sena was not just growing in Maharashtra at its expense but also severely limiting its growth. The old guard of the BJP, though, having burnt their fingers once with Thackeray, were twice shy about pushing him too far again. The alliance was finally broken not just by Modi but also by the younger guard like Fadnavis and Nitin Gadkari who underestimated Uddhav Thackeray. According to one Sena ideologue in the know, they had fully expected to win more than 160 seats out of 288 in the assembly in 2014 and restrict the Sena to under 25. But when they couldn’t do that in 2014 despite a massive wave, they know they can’t do it now with much anti-incumbency both in the state and at the centre.

After a generational shift, the BJP has blinked first - again! Can Uddhav Thackeray be his father - or more?