Browns fans are wary of Nick Saban endorsements, although Minkah Fitzpatrick's coach isn't the only one who sees the Alabama DB as worthy of No. 4 overall pick. Is he good enough to be the first DB drafted that high in more than 10 years? A big-picture analysis.
Minkah Fitzpatrick has neither bandwagon nor draft history pushing him as the Browns pull into the April 26-28 draft.
Scattered voices tout the Alabama defensive back as the Browns' best option at No. 4 overall, citing elite ability at safety, cornerback or anything a coordinator might dream up. Supposedly, he's Gregg Williams' kind of peppy, as well.
Yet, the bandwagons for the 4-spot (assuming GM John Dorsey spends the No. 1 pick on a quarterback) mostly are for running back Saquon Barkley or defensive end Bradley Chubb. But Dorsey has his own long history with teams drafting DBs fairly high.
Teams have avoided cornerbacks and safeties until a bit later than No. 4 in most recent drafts. The top DBs selected in the last 10:
- 2017: No. 6, Jamal Adams, LSU/Jets.
- 2016: No. 5, Jalen Ramsey, Florida State/Jaguars.
- 2015: No. 11, Trae Waynes, Michigan State/Vikings.
- 2014: No. 8, Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State/Browns.
- 2013: No. 9, Dee Milliner, Alabama/Jets.
- 2012: No. 6, Morris Claiborne, LSU/Cowboys.
- 2011: No. 5, Patrick Peterson, LSU/Cardinals.
- 2010: No. 5, Eric Berry, Tennessee/Chiefs.
- 2009: No. 14, Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State/Saints.
- 2008: No. 11, Leotis McKelvin, Troy/Bills.
The Ramsey pick was a winner — he made first-team All-Pro at cornerback for a Jacksonville team that broke through to the 2017 playoffs. Peterson, a corner, and Berry, a safety, have had big careers. Jenkins was a Pro Bowl safety on Philadelphia's recent Super Bowl winner.
The bust list is shorter.
Milliner, who played for Alabama before Fitzpatrick did, was out of the league after three years. The Gilbert pick stands as an all-time groaner.
Meanwhile, the league has placed greater value on other positions.
Whereas no DB has been a top-four pick in the 10 drafts cited here, nine left tackles went in Picks 1-4. Ten defensive linemen went at No. 4 or higher; so did four running backs.
Good luck gauging Dorsey's appetite for Fitzptarick. He's scheduled for a pre-draft press conference Thursday and is sure to reveal nothing.
But he has that history.
His memory banks include a large deposit of defensive backs in Green Bay, which drafted one in Round 1 in five of his first nine years as a Packers scout, starting in 1991.
The payoff was weak.
Ohio State's Vinnie Clark (No. 19 overall, 1991) spent only two years in Green Bay. Terrell Buckley (No. 5, 1992) had a 14-year career but played only his first three seasons for the Packers. George Teague (No. 29 overall, 1993) was traded after three years for a conditional seventh-round draft pick that turned into nothing when the Falcons cut him.
Craig Newsome (No. 32 overall, 1995) gave the cheeseheads an interception in Super Bowl XXXI, but his pro career last only 53 games. Antwan Edwards (No. 25 overall, 1999) left Green Bay after five seasons and soon was out of the league.
Dorsey's authority had increased by the time the Packers spent another first-round pick on a defensive back, in 2004, with similar luck. Ahmad "Batman" Carroll (No. 25 overall) was cut after three seasons.
Dorsey worked nine more years in Green Bay. The Packers' highest draft picks spent on DBs in that span (including a year when they didn't draft any) were at No. 51, No. 185, No. 89, No. 60, No. 187, No. 71, No. 131 and No. 62.
More recently, Dorsey was general manager of the Chiefs for the five drafts from 2013-17. Their top picks on DBs were spent at No. 134, No. 87, No. 18, No. 74 and No. 218.
The high pick, University of Washington star Marcus Peters at 18, has been a good one (All-Pro in 2015 and 2016), but it is an anomaly in Dorsey's recent experience, and 18 isn't 4.
Fitzpatrick, analysts agree, would have to go to the Browns at No. 4 if they stay there rather than trading up on April 26.
Daniel Jeremiah sees Fitzpatrick as "a bigger version of Tyrann Mathieu, without the baggage that dropped "Honey Badger" to Round 3 in 2013. Lance Zierlein says Fitzpatrick "turns up the intensity level as high as it will go and rips the knob off until the game is over." Dane Brugler calls him "a football savant."
Recently, Alabama head coach Nick Saban raved about Fitzpatrick being worth a top-five pick on every level. Browns fans are wary of Saban endorsements.
Shortly before the Browns drafted Alabama running back Trent Richardson at No. 3 overall in 2012, Saban said:
"Trent is a very special player. He has a really good, complete skill set. He's got really good speed for his size. He's a good receiver and a good pass blocker. 'Bruising back' would be an insult to all that he is, even though he does that, too. I have nothing but great things to say about Trent. He'd be great in the community. He'd be a great player for (the Browns). If they wouldn't be excited about him, they really should be."
They picked him. There wasn't much excitement.
If Browns fans could be certain Fitzpatrick could do for Cleveland what Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu did for Baltimore and Pittsburgh, his bandwagon would be larger.
Reed was drafted by the Ravens at No. 24 overall in 2002, and Polamalu went to Pittsburgh at No. 16 in 2003.
In 2004, the first defensive back drafted was a safety, Sean Taylor, taken by Washington at No. 5. Taylor was on his way to the Reed-Polamalu level before he was shot to death during home invasion midway through the 2007 NFL season.
Andy Reid's coaching career took off with a huge assist from safety Brian Dawkins, a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's Class of 2018. Dawkins lasted until the latter part of Round 2 in 1996. He was a perennial All-Pro on Reid's teams that went to four straight NFC title games in the 2000s.
Fitzpatrick shapes up as an unlikely choice for Dorsey at No. 4, but a more realistic target if Dorsey trades down a bit.
Trading down? That's a long Browns discussion unto itself.
Reach Steve at 330-580-8347 or
steve.doerschuk@cantonrep.com
On Twitter: @sdoerschukREP