Tamil Nadu's Cauvery protests may only help BJP in Karnataka polls

CHENNAI: It is now almost clear the Narendra Modi-led government did not constitute the Cauvery Management Board because of the forthcoming Assembly elections in Karnataka. But what exactly the impact of the ongoing protests over the Cauvery issue in Tamil Nadu will have on Karnataka polls? If at all anything, it would only benefit the BJP electorally in the neighbouring State, say political observers.

The battle in Karnataka is between BJP and Congress, with Janata Dal (Secular) pushed to the tertiary position. With Congress seen as an ally of the DMK and the DMK taking the lead in the protests with the BJP being the sole target, it has all the ingredients to swing the votes, at least in the Cauvery dependent region of Karnataka, towards BJP.

“As more and more people there (Karnataka) see the intensive protests in Tamil Nadu, automatically Karnataka voters will think that only a party that is favourable to them could protect their interests,” opined A Marx, president of Tamil Nadu Chapter of Peoples Union for Human Rights (PUHR).

This is not the first time such a situation has arisen. In 2008, when Tamil Nadu government started the Hogenakkal drinking water project, Karnataka Assembly elections were just round the corner. BJP leader B S Yeddyurappa famously made a visit to the spot at Hogenakkal and declared that the spot where the Tamil Nadu government wants to implement the project falls under Karnataka’s territory and he will oppose the project. Soon, instances of violence against Tamils were reported in Bengaluru and pro-Kannada activists attacked the office of a leading Tamil newspaper too.

With the elections around, it became a poll blank. The then Chief Minister M Karunanidhi realised the impact the issue would have on the electoral prospects of Congress in Karnataka and halted the project temporarily. “Let the elections get over first. We will hold talks and if needed, we will enter the battlefield,” a press release from him in April 2008 said.

It also drew criticism from Tamil Nadu that Karunanidhi halted the execution of the project only to help Congress in Karnataka polls and under pressure from Sonia Gandhi. The DMK was then part of the Congress-led UPA 1. But even then, the BJP won the elections in May 2008 and for the first time captured power in a Southern State. Yeddyurappa became the party's first Chief Minister in Karnataka.

Already there are rumblings within the Tamil Nadu unit of Congress party. The party’s farmer’s wing secretary G K Muralidharan has openly said that the protests would only help BJP in Karnataka. He raised doubts over DMK cadre unusually allowing more Congress party flags being visible in the protests over the Cauvery issue now.

“Various factors would decide a party’s election victory. On seeing the protests in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka voters would think the BJP is acting favourable to them. It can be one of the factors helping the party electorally,” said S Raveendran Duraisamy, a political analyst.