Sources Say Tesla Model Y Production Will Start November 2019
8 H BY ERIC LOVEDAY 24
The Tesla Model Y electric crossover may be arriving on the market even earlier than previous reports suggested.
Model Y will be a long-range electric CUV based off the existing Tesla Model 3 and it’s expected to be the highest volume offering to date from the electric automaker.
Related – Tesla Model Y Launch Date Rumored To Be March 1, 2020
According to Reuters:
“Tesla is targeting November 2019 as the start of production for its Model Y sport utility vehicle, with production in China to begin two years later, two sources told Reuters this week, shedding some light on the electric vehicle maker’s next project that could tax its resources and capacity.”
This falls mostly in line with our previous source-fed report that stated the Model Y would launch in March of 2020. So, production starts November 2019, then a few months later deliveries will commence.
HOT TIP: a supplier source tells me Tesla is sending out drawings and specs to solicit quotes for the Model Y crossover. Start of production targeted for March 1, 2020.
— Problem Magnet (@Tweetermeyer) January 30, 2018
Now that we’ve got several sources backing a similar start-up timeframe for the model Y, we’re fairly confident in the validity of the intel. However, Tesla often delays launches, so even if this is accurate right now, that doesn’t mean the Y launch will stay on track.
Tesla Model Y Rendering
Reuters adds:
“Tesla has given suppliers scant details about the program and had not provided a production time frame, but has now indicated the vehicle would begin to be built at its Fremont, California, plant in November of next year, the two sources with knowledge of the supply chain said.”
The Fremont factory can’t handle the expected production volume of the Y and 3 combined though, so Tesla will eventually seek out other sites for production and it looks like China may be in the running. Per Reuters:
“The two sources said suppliers could be estimating an annual production of 500,000 vehicles in the United States, with much lower volume in China, likely in the tens of thousands. Building 500,000 Model Ys per year would be the equivalent of what Musk has planned for total production in Fremont by the end of this year, although the company is nowhere near that volume.”
The sources say that Tesla issued them a supplier “request for information (RFI),” which is a first step in setting up the supply chain for a new car. Typically this RFI is issued more than 2 years ahead of the launch of a new vehicle, but Tesla always sets aggressive timelines, so it likely expects supply demands to be met in less than the industry standard time. Additionally, much of the Y will be carry over parts from the Model 3, so it seems feasible that it could be ready in shorter order.
Tesla has not commented on this new information leaked by supplier sources.
Source: Reuters
Categories: Tesla
25 responses to "Sources Say Tesla Model Y Production Will Start November 2019"
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Another CUV to arrive 2020 – the segment could be crowded. Gonna be tough to sell 500,000/yr with plenty of other options available – they had better plan to price it competitively.
There is actually not enough CUVs. All the others are showing production rates of 20k cars per year. You think that is large enough to facilitate the growing CUV market?
Not to mention charging networks are also important.
Please, Please PLEASE!!!!!! Don’t make it look like the rendering or the 3 or S or X.
Yeah, I know CD is in play but dang man…
2020 is the year I plan to buy the 3. Hmmm, I’ll need to see what the Y will actually look like and some specs.
Model Y needs real utility, which the Model X lacks.
People want to be able to put bikes, kayaks, or a SkyBox on the roof. Rear door needs real utility for big box items like appliances.
The lack of any utility of Model X makes me wonder what Elon Musk does with his spare time in life.
Elon doesn’t have any spare time, at least not in the normal sense. His second full-time job, in case you don’t know, is running SpaceX. That leaves far too little time for family life, and no “spare” time at all.
If Elon has a “hobby”, it’s his third job — running The Boring Company. I don’t know if he considers it a hobby, but he obviously doesn’t take it seriously!
Lmao problem Margaret is your source.😂😂😂 how about start producing the model 3 at 5k a week and 200k a year before building pre production models of the model y
The Model 3 is already being built at a rate of around 130,000 per year. Last year, in the US, 200,000 cars with plugs were sold, but less than 100,000 BEVs. Tesla is already building at a rate greater than all of US 2017 BEV deliveries. This is one model.
A rate of 250k or 500k is needed for global deliveries, but just for US the current production rate is probably acceptable.
They need a new factory to meet those volumes. They may be able to dribble a few out on the same line as the Model 3. Like GM building the Cruze sedan and hatchback on the same line.
So maybe mid 2020 for volume production, but more likely 2021 based on past performance.
Yeah, it seems rather premature to be talking about a date for start of production on the Model Y (perhaps it’s a forlorn hope, but hope they change that name!) before they’ve even started building a new auto assembly plant, or renovating an existing one.
As I recall, it took Tesla about 1 year and 9 months to renovate the NUMMI auto assembly plant for their use. Generally speaking, starting from scratch by building a new factory takes about two full years to get it up and actually mass producing.
Last report I saw, Tesla was only in talks with some Chinese auto maker to start building Tesla cars there. No indication that any deal has yet been made.
So I’m going to treat the info in this article as just a rumor, at least until we see something that looks much, much more like verified facts.
I think it depends what the organic, sustainable demand for the Model 3 is. Right now there’s obviously pent-up demand and a backlog, but that doesn’t mean once you get through the backlog that there’s really demand for 100,000+ Model 3s per year (especially if the base model ends up being a teaser). If not, then having the Y on the same line could work out.
Regardless, based on Tesla’s past track record I’m skeptical we’ll see significant availability until 2021. The 2019 production target will slip back into 2020 where it will go into “production” with a few dribbling out. And then we’ll finally actually see true production around the start of 2021.
Why do they need a new factory when they are doubling the size of their current one?
Picture:
https://s.hdnux.com/photos/53/30/16/11371430/9/460×1240.jpg
Article:
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/New-Tesla-plan-could-double-size-of-Fremont-9936003.php
Filing with the city:
http://fremontcityca.iqm2.com/Citizens/FileOpen.aspx?Type=1&ID=1338&Inline=True
I dunno, things are already pretty crowded there, with insufficient room for employees to park.
I do see from aerial views that there appears to be “empty” land or farm land adjacent to Tesla’s Fremont complex, so perhaps Tesla can indeed do a major expansion if they buy up some of that additional land.
But they would be advised to either build a high-rise parking lot, or dig a huge basement and put a multi-level parking lot in that, before they do any major expansion! With parking space already being insufficient for current workers, hiring more is going to become more and more problematic.
Given Tesla history, they have a reveal for their vehicle announcements. When they have the reveal for the Model Y then you know a couple years later they will be making it. All these fantasy stories don’t mean anything at this stage, I might as well tell you they are in talks with the state of South Australia, where they plan to build the Model Y in one of our abandoned cart factories. Anyone can say anything, so just wait for their reveal, where all will be revealed.
If they were going to do the Model Y in November 2019, there would have to be a reveal now. Maybe the referral will be November 2019.
With this, Semi and Roadster and maybe Model S/X refresh, Tesla will burn alot of capital to get these assembly lines up and running and to open their China factory. They really need several quarters of good cashflow. Only thing holding them back is Model 3 production. I think they need to crank out 10K Model 3’s a week to even think about starting to build Model Y’s.
Yes, but at the same time, given the long development time (4-5 years) for a new car model*, and the approximately two years between breaking ground on a new factory and starting mass production in that factory, Tesla needs to have been already moving forward with plans for the Model Y. So it’s good that it is doing so, even though it looks like what’s reported here is likely more rumor than fact.
Tesla can always put off start of Model Y production for a few months somewhere down the line, if it comes to that. Far better to have that be the plan than what happened with the Model 3; rushing to start production faster than planned, then having to put the brakes on for several months because not every production line was ready to roll!
*Hopefully somewhat less for the Model Y, since it’s supposed to be a variant on the Model 3 rather than an entirely new model like the Model 3 was. I hope that turns out to be more true for the TMY than it was for the MX, which was originally supposed to be a variant on the MS but turned into something quite different!
Another nail in the coffin of the $35K Model 3. They’ll be able to sell lots of LR and/or highly optioned Y’s and will likely produce those over the “stripper” 3.
I really don’t understand this drumbeat, this incessant propaganda meme of Tesla bashing, based on the idea that Tesla won’t build many of the base “stripper” TM3’s, for an actual sales price of $35,000. No auto maker makes a lot of base “stripper” units with no options at all, and I think it’s safe to say that most Tesla reservation holders wouldn’t want one if Tesla offered it today.
Once again, Tesla bashers keep trying to make it out to be somehow “bad” or “wrong” when Tesla follows automotive industry standard. I find it bizarre that they apparently think those reading their comments are clueless enough to believe their FUD, if not downright stupid! It’s pretty insulting on their part, too.
Thank goodness I’m a Tesla fan, so I can stick to real facts and honest opinions, rather than the obvious B.S. seen in most Tesla bashing posts!
Honestly, I think a lot of reservation holders probably want the base model. $35K still isn’t exactly a cheap car. It’s just my opinion, but I don’t think you get 400,000 reservations all from people who want to spend $50K on a car.
While there are probably plenty of people who want a base Tesla Model 3. I will remind you Tesla sold 300k cars with prices over 75k.
So I wouldn’t say 500k cars at 50k is too far to fathom. (not saying it is the case)
Tesla sold 300k cars TOTAL at 75k+. The want to all 500k Model 3s PER YEAR. Can’t do that at 50k+….
For those who say free people but stripper versions, Musk said 35k was NOT a stripped down version, but was “well equipped”.
Other Automakers may not sell many base models, but they are available. Therein lies the difference – the announced and much ballyhooed $35K version is NOT available, and the timeline when it will be keeps getting pushed out. We may never know how many will/would buy it as it does not exist.
I’n not bashing Tesla, it is good business sense to make and sell higher cost/margin/profit products if the demand is there. But it doesn’t bode well for those that DO want the base model – whether that is a few or many.
“Thank goodness I’m a Tesla fan, so I can stick to real facts and honest opinions, rather than the obvious B.S. seen in most Tesla bashing posts!”
This statement is at the root of the criticism of Tesla fan bois. Self serving and self righteous control over what constitutes “facts” and the only “honest opinions” being offered.
I too am a Tesla fan. But I don’t let that fact cloud my thinking nor distort reality.
Ford shows their Focus for 2019.
It has sedan, hatch & wagon styles.
It has 6 speed manual and 8 speed automatic tranny.
It has Gasoline & Diesel engines.
But where is the Electric?
No reference to it. Can we presume they are dropping the electric version.
For US it will come only in 2020 and there may not be MY-2019 at all.
So the remaining electric will be sold out soon.
Who cares when Model-3 sales is increasing.
“Production” as in build a couple by hand as prototypes maybe…
1. Presumably the Y uses the same motors, battery pack, etc as the 3 and of course software is re-usable. I think all the truly difficult parts of are copy/paste since the 3 by that point will have AWD. Would like to see a different external form than the 3 though. Something with a proper hatch.
2. After that, Tesla should make a Model Z. The Z would be a little eco car with a look similar to a VW Golf…i.e. well proportioned and compact. Make a low price point version of it that comes in at $25,000 perhaps than a hot hatch AWD GTI competitor.
In summary, Go low after the Y. And yes dial back the space age nonsense a half turn. Perhaps actual door handles for instance….it won’t kill you to put door handles or a volume knob on the radio and such.