Fed's Kaplan sees two more rate hikes this year, pace of tightening possibly slowing from there

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said late Monday that he expects the Fed to raise interest rates twice more this year and then possibly slow the pace of rate increases if the moderating growth he expects materializes. "2018 will be a relatively solid year for GDP growth," Kaplan said in a Bloomberg TV interview from Beijing. In 2019 and 2020, "I think you'll see growth moderating and so for me, the path of rate increases is likely a little bit flatter," he said. Weaker labor force growth, sluggish productivity and high levels of government debt are among the factors that could hold back the economy in coming years, he said in the Bloomberg interview. The Congressional Budget Office earlier Monday released projections showing that the recent tax cut and spending measures would push the U.S. government deficit to above $1 trillion by 2020. "Late in the cycle, it's unfortunate that we've ramped up debt-to-GDP," he said. Kaplan said he is paying close attention to the yield curve, the difference between short- and longer-term bond rates as "I do not want to knowingly tighten into a flat or inverted yield curve," which historically has preceded recessions. And on trade, Kaplan said he did not yet see a major economic impact from the Trump administration's threats of tariffs. But those threats could have a "chilling effect" on businesses, he said.