The winter that would never end has, at last, ended. Monday’s scattered snowflakes were most likely the season’s last, and temperatures are poised to surge over the coming days.
Looking ahead two weeks, we see no more sustained cold weather in the 40s. Mostly, we see afternoon highs in the springlike 60s. But, in keeping with the volatile nature of the season, we will throw in occasionally cooler days in the 50s and warmer ones into the 70s or even near 80, like this Friday and Saturday.
It’s important to understand that just because we have announced the start of spring, it doesn’t mean we can’t still have brief spells of cold weather. The season is known for big temperature swings and, occasionally, freak weather events occur that are out of character, even into May.
But average temperatures are on the rise. The normal high is now 65 and will increase to 70 in two weeks. Actual temperatures may be a hint below that, given a chilly prevailing weather pattern but, even on days that are 15 to 20 degrees below normal, it should hit at least 50.
Reflecting on the winter that was
The past winter will be remembered for its duration and volatility, more than its intensity. December and January were slightly cooler than normal, February was much warmer than normal, and March flipped back to cold.
The season seemed to go on interminably, thanks to that persistent chill in March that lingered into April.
Here are some of winter’s highlights:
- Washington had its coldest December since 2010, and the final week of the month, spanning Christmas and New Year’s Eve, was the coldest since 2000.
- It was the fourth-driest January on record. Thanks to a thaw in the middle of the month, temperatures were close to normal. But the first week of the month was frigid, ranking as the fourth-coldest on record, with an average temperature of 19 degrees.
- It was the third-warmest February on record, highlighted by the warmest back-to-back winter days ever observed in Washington: 78 and 82 degrees on Feb. 20 and 21. The high of 82 was the warmest day ever recorded so early in a calendar year and tied for the second-warmest February temperature ever observed.
- Oddly, for the second straight year, March was colder than February. For the first 28 days, temperatures remained below 60 degrees, joining only March 1958 in staying so cool so long. The month featured winter’s biggest snow event of 4.1 inches, on March 21, spring’s first full day. It was also a notably windy month, highlighted by the area’s worst wind storm in years on March 2, when peak wind gusts reached 71 mph at Dulles Airport and 62 mph at Reagan National.
- The season’s total snowfall of 7.8 inches was just half of the recent 30-year average of 15.4 inches. Frequently, the region found itself in a snow hole, with heavier snow falling to the north, south, west and east.
The winter’s off-again, on-again nature was confusing for the region’s plant life. Buds emerged in the Tidal Basin’s cherry trees much earlier than normal in late February but failed to progress in the bloom cycle through much of March because of the stagnant cold. Finally, warmth in the month’s final days and a few days in April allowed the buds to burst, and the cherry blossoms reached peak bloom on April 5, portending the imminent onset of spring.
We applied the following criteria to declare winter over:
*No identifiable threat of accumulating snow in long-range forecasts that could remain on the ground for 12 hours or more.
*No identifiable threat of cold weather lasting more than 48 hours, when we define cold weather as highs in the 40s (or colder) and lows below freezing in Washington (as measured at Reagan National).
We started the tradition of declaring an end to winter in 2014. This year is the longest winter has endured in those five years. Last year, we said it was over on March 24. Here are the dates from the prior years:
Looking ahead
Enjoy what is almost certain to be an abbreviated spring this year. In just six week, average highs reach the upper 70s and summer will be knocking on the door.
Our summer outlook is typically released just before Memorial Day.