Guttedar has his task cut out in Afzalpur

With the announcement of Malikayya Guttedar, a six-time MLA who recently left Congress and joined Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as a party candidate for Afzalpur constituency in the first list released on Sunday late evening, his long-time rival M.Y. Patil, a two-time MLA who moved from BJP to Congress last week, has intensified preparations to take on Mr. Guttedar in the imminent Assembly polls. Sources in Congress confirmed that Mr. Patil had been roped in on the clear assurance of party ticket for the constituency. The contest between the two arch-rivals is expected to pave way for an intense fight.

Besides the calibre of individual candidates and their money-muscle might, caste factor does play an undeniable role in Afzalpur as in many of the constituencies. Mr. Patil presently enjoys the support of his own Diksha Lingayat community that has around 35,000 votes. He may not be able to get overwhelming support from Aadi Lingayats who have around 35,000 votes as Janata Dal (Secular) is fielding Rajendra Patil Revoor who hails from that community. However, Mr. Patil is planning to exploit anti-BJP sentiments in Muslims whose electorate size is around 25,000 and getting them translated as votes in his favour. Another advantage for Mr. Patil is the 20,000 Kuruba votes that are likely to go for Congress because of their leader and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.

Mr. Guttedar’s open attack on senior Congressman and Dalit leader M. Mallikarjun Kharge for his alleged role in depriving him of a berth in the Siddaramaiah Cabinet for accommodating his son Priyank Kharge, who is now Information Technology & Bio-Technology and Tourism Minister, is more likely to inflict damage rather than help him. It has not only provoked Mr. Kharge and other Congressmen to take the constituency seriously, but it has also upset a large section of Dalits. Just as Mr. Guttedar parted ways with Congress and joined BJP declaring his lone purpose of ensuring “a humiliating defeat of Congress” in Afzalpur as well as in surrounding constituencies, the Congress leaders have started formulating grassroots strategies to ensure a defeat for Mr. Guttedar. After successfully roping in Mr. Patil, they are now making all attempts to get a large section of Scheduled Castes/ Scheduled Tribes (SC/ST), whose voter strength is around 30,000, stand against Mr. Guttedar, projecting him as anti-Dalit.

On the other hand, Mr. Guttedar is largely dependent on his own community which has less than 10,000 votes. Having known the fact that Muslims may not vote for BJP, he is, at least, hoping to split them between Congress and JD(S). The Muslims are unlikely to vote for JD(S) as its candidate is a new entrant to politics. The possibility of SC/ST votes being weaned away from him is the biggest disadvantage for Mr. Guttedar.

As the things stand today, Mr. Guttedar has a tough time ahead to open the account for BJP in Afzalpur against Mr. Patil’s advantageous position.