This post has been updated from an earlier version following the news that Steven Stamkos will play for the Tampa Bay Lightning during the postseason and adds a deeper analysis of the Winnipeg Jets.
The NHL’s second season is almost here, and there are many worthy candidates to be the last team standing this postseason.
In the Western Conference, the Nashville Predators on Thursday night clinched the Presidents’ Trophy, the first in franchise history, earning them home-ice advantage for as long as they remain in the playoffs. As a result, they are not only a solid choice to represent the West in the Stanley Cup finals for a second straight year, they are among the league favorites to win the Stanley Cup (14 percent). Only the Tampa Bay Lightning, who expect to see star forward Steven Stamkos return for the postseason, have a higher probability of winning it all (15 percent).
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Our postseason probabilities are based on the win rates that fuel our weekly power rankings and take into account a team’s actual win-loss record; its expected win-loss record based on goals scored and allowed, also known as its Pythagorean winning percentage; and its expected win-loss record based on expected goals for and against, a metric created by hockey metrics website Corsica, which takes into account the likelihood a shot becomes a goal based on distance, angle and whether the attempt was a rebound, on the rush or generated on the power play.
As the Stanley Cup playoffs unfold, we’ll provide updated win probabilities for every team in the postseason. We’ll update these odds at the conclusion of every series, so you can see whether your favorite team (or most-hated rival) is in position to hoist the Cup or be sent home earlier than expected.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Chances to win Stanley Cup: 15 percent
Stamkos missed the final three games of the regular season because of a lower-body injury but he is expected to be back in time for the start of the playoffs. With him on the ice, the Lightning outscored opponents 66 to 47 at even strength with 53 percent of scoring chances going in the team’s favor. But the two-time leading scorer for the NHL isn’t the most dangerous player on the ice. That honor goes to Nikita Kucherov, an MVP candidate who ended the season with 39 goals and 100 points, joining Connor McDavid and Claude Giroux as the only players to reach the 100-point plateau in 2017-18.
Opponents will also have to find a way to neutralize Tampa Bay’s power play, the third-best in the NHL this season in terms of conversion rate (24 percent). The Lightning generate 60 scoring chances per 60 minutes with the man advantage, the 10th highest in the league this season and fourth-highest among playoff teams, converting 13 percent of those into power-play goals. only the Pittsburgh Penguins and Vancouver Canucks were more efficient.
Nashville Predators
Chances to win Stanley Cup: 14 percent
The Predators advanced to the Stanley Cup finals in 2017 and appear poised to repeat as the Western Conference’s representative this year.
Much of their success starts in net. Pekka Rinne is tied for the league lead in shutouts (eight) and has provided Nashville with a quality start — games in which he posted an above-average save percentage — 67 percent of the time, the highest among the 20 goaltenders with at least 50 starts in 2017-18.
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Rinne also has an above-average save percentage against high-danger scoring chances, stopping eight of every 10 shots from the slot or the crease at all strengths.
Nashville’s roster is also deep. Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson lead the team with 61 points apiece, and 11 other skaters have scored at least 10 goals. Four players — Arvidsson, Forsberg, Kevin Fiala and Craig Smith — have 20 goals or more. Plus, the Predators’ most-used line of Forsberg, Arvidsson and Ryan Johansen has outscored opponents 33-15 at even strength with a majority of scoring chances (51 percent) also going in the team’s favor.
Vegas Golden Knights
Chances to win Stanley Cup: 11 percent
The Golden Knights had a remarkable debut season, crushing the 24-year-old record set by the Florida Panthers and Mighty Ducks of Anaheim (33 during the 1993-94 campaign) for wins by a first-year expansion team. And they did it by getting career seasons from key players.
Center William Karlsson scored 18 total goals for the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets in his first three seasons in the NHL and then potted 43 (and counting) for Vegas in his fourth year. Winger Erik Haula bested his career high in goals (15) set in 2016-17 by nearly doubling his scoring output a year later (29 through 75 games). And Jonathan Marchessault, who is on his fourth team in five years, showed that last season’s 30-goal campaign was not a fluke: The 27-year-old has 27 goals in 76 games this season.
Among the 44 line combinations that have skated at least 300 even-strength minutes this season, none has a higher goal differential than Vegas’s top line of Marchessault, Karlsson and Reilly Smith (plus-23). After adjusting for shot quality and quantity, their expected goal differential is the second-best in the NHL (plus-8) behind Nashville’s trio of Smith, Fiala and Kyle Turris (plus-10). In other words, their skill at scoring goals is the real deal.
Boston Bruins
Chances to win Stanley Cup: 11 percent
The Bruins boast a solid top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, but their defense has been sensational at limiting high quality shots. According to Corsica’s expected goal model, which factors in shot quality factors such as distance, angle and whether the attempt was a rebound, five of Boston’s defenders — Charlie McAvoy, Kevan Miller, Torey Krug, Brandon Carlo and Zdeno Chara — rank among the top 30 blue-liners playing at least 1,000 minutes at even strength for lowest expected goals-against per 60 minutes. McAvoy and Miller have been good enough to rank among the top 10.
The benefit, of course, is Boston’s goaltenders don’t have to deal with as many scoring chances, especially those classified as “high danger” from the slot or the crease. Tuukka Rask sees a league-low 24 scoring chances per 60 minutes at even strength and just 9.5 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, the fifth-lowest among 25 netminders playing at least 2,000 even-strength minutes this season.
Winnipeg Jets
Chances to win Stanley Cup: 11 percent
Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck had a breakout season for Winnipeg, leading the league in wins (44) while posting a .924 save percentage. His save percentage against high-danger chances at even strength was above-average (.883) as was his performance on the penalty kill (.832).
Offensively, the Jets feature 19-year-old Patrik Laine, a 44-goal scorer this season who also potted a league-leading 20 power-play goals. Blake Wheeler, meanwhile, led all skaters with 48 primary assists in 2017-18, helping linemates Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele score 29 even-strength goals as a trio this season, the 11th most among forward lines.
More on the NHL:
Training camp in April: Auditions still open for Capitals’ forward roles in playoffs
‘My regret is it wasn’t a 15-year contract’: Revisiting Alex Ovechkin’s deal before his 1,000th game
Alex Ovechkin, on the verge of 1,000th NHL game, looks back at his first 82
Cal Ripken Jr. ‘can relate a little bit’ as Alex Ovechkin is honored for his 1,000th game
