The first Cold War was about ideology. It was, at least ostensibly, an argument – conducted on a global scale – about how people should live. What is the new one about? Because there can be no doubt any more that this is where we are. As shocking and unexpected as it might seem, we have no choice but to conclude that Russia is now engaging in wilful provocation that exceeds even those revanchist acts of aggression in Georgia and Ukraine within what it regards as its own territorial sphere. Its belligerence goes beyond any comprehensible political disagreements. It is simply visceral nationalism.

There are no more abstract moral justifications for its involvement in disputed regions of the world:...