The 2018 Masters features 87 of the best golfers in the world — the smallest field since 1997 — with one, Tiger Woods, getting ready to play in his first major since 2015 and earning most of the attention. Despite the hype surrounding Woods’s quest for a fifth green jacket, he isn’t among the favorites to win this time around. That honor goes to Dustin Johnson, the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world whose low scoring average (68.8, second lowest in 2018) and highest strokes gained per round (plus-2.5) put him in position to win the major that has eluded him seven times since he debuted at Augusta in 2009. Johnson also leads the PGA Tour in bounce-back percentage (39 percent), the percentage of time a player is over par on a hole and then under par on the following hole.
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Using scoring average and strokes gained as a base for each golfer’s projected average score per round, and then adjusting for the difficulty of Augusta round by round — for example, golfers averaged almost three strokes over par in Round 1 in 2017 but improved that to par in Round 4 — Johnson can be expected to finish 16 under this weekend at Augusta. That gives him an 11 percent chance of winning the Masters, in line with the odds being offered by the Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday afternoon (12 to 1, tied for third choice).
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Justin Thomas (8 percent win probability) has also shown an ability to get distance off the tee (312.5 yards on average, eighth best in 2018) and hit greens in regulation (70 percent, 25th in 2018), two skills that are largely associated with what it takes to win at Augusta. Defending champion Sergio Garcia (7 percent), meanwhile, leads the field and the PGA Tour in strokes gained from tee to green (plus-2.03 per round) in 2018. All three should be in contention heading into the weekend.
The term “favorite” in this model should be applied loosely at the onset: Thomas and Garcia are close together behind Johnson in terms of win probability, making this a relatively open field before Friday’s cuts. That, too, is in sync with oddsmakers like the Westgate, who give no golfer better than 10 to 1 odds to win the Masters before the field tees off Thursday morning. On the eve of the 2017 Masters, by comparison, Jordan Spieth was a 13-to-2 favorite with Rory McIlroy (7 to 1 odds) and Johnson (8 to 1 odds) the second and third choices.
If you are looking for dark horses to emerge with the green jacket, keep an eye on Alex Noren (ranked 15th in the world) and Tommy Fleetwood (12th).
Noren ranks sixth in strokes gained overall (plus-1.9) on the PGA Tour this year, ahead of notable names such as Woods, Jason Day, Rose, Spieth and Rickie Fowler. In addition, Noren has the third-best scoring average on Par 5s (4.47), an advantage perhaps on No. 13 Azalea, a 510-yard Par 5 that is one of the key holes at Augusta.
Fleetwood ranks eighth in strokes gained (plus-1.7) with the driving accuracy (67 percent, 29th on the PGA Tour) and birdie rate on Par 5s (50 percent, 23rd) that could also have him within striking distance throughout the tournament.
As the Masters unfolds, we’re providing updated win probabilities for every golfer in the tournament. We’ll update these odds with the conclusion of every round, so you can see whether a favorite is in position to don the green jacket or an unlikely hero emerges to make history.
More on the Masters:
Augusta National to host a women’s amateur event in 2019
Svrluga: When Phil and Tiger play a round at Augusta, it’s anything but meaningless
