WASHINGTON—Beyond any near-term impact on Boeing, which at this point looks minimal, the escalating trade tit-for-tat between the world’s top two commercial aviation markets raises a larger question: whether a China-U.S. trade war kick starts a global recession. “The most important aspect of the tariffs will be the effect on the global economy,” said Sanford C. Bernstein analysts, adding: “Should we see a global recession, this would be highly negative for ...