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Global music-streaming giant Spotify Technology SA made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange Tuesday afternoon. The company is using a so-called direct-listing process. That means it will let existing shares float publicly without offering any new shares on an exchange and without an underwriting bank to help buoy its stock price in the open market. Why? Spotify wanted to democratize the process and they didn't need to raise fresh money through the offering as is often the case with an IPO. Spotify kicked off trade at $165.90 and was down nearly 5% at $1658.23 in recent action, after hanging around a range between $167 to $170, as holders of the stock tried to arrive at a price. So-called designated market makers Citadel Securities will help to ensure that the process is orderly by helping facilitate trading throughout the session. Morgan Stanley is serving as the lead adviser to Spotify. Spotify's stock initially had a reference price of $132, which was the basis for open bidding. Based on that price shares of Spotify are up more than 20%. Competitors to Spotify include Pandora Media Inc. , which is trading down 2.4% and has declined 3% so far in 2018. That compares with a decline of 3.5% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a year-to-date loss of 2.9% for the S&P 500 index . Apple Inc.'s music-streaming business and Amazon.com Inc.'s are also viewed as competitors to the Stockholm-based Spotify, which officially launched its business in 2008. Here's a piece outlining all you need to know about Spotify's public debut.
Spotify Technology's stock opened at $165.90 on the New York Stock Exchange, or 25.7% above the reference price of $132. The first trade was executed at 12:43PM ET. Spotify went public via a direct listing, rather than a traditional initial public offering, so the company didn't raise money through the listing. Some analysts expect trading to be especially volatile in the early days and weeks of trading due to liquidity levels in the wake of the direct listing, which allowed existing investors to sell their shares.
Spotify's stock trades as high as $169 in opening minutes, or 28% above $132 reference price
Spotify's stock opens at $165.90, 27% above reference price of $132
Spotify stock indicated to open between $160 to $165 vs. reference price $132
Spotify's stock indicated to open between $150-$160 vs. reference price of $132
U.S. stock indexes opened modestly higher Tuesday, with investors trading a day after a broad selloff in the previous session took the S&P 500 below a key technical level and erased the Nasdaq's gains for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 120 points, or 0.5%, at 23,766, the S&P 500 index gained 11 points, or 0.4%, at 2,593, after the broad-market index closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in about two years. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index traded up 0.5% at 6,904, after erasing its gains for 2018 and now showing a year-to-date decline of 0.5% as of Monday's close. In corporate news, Tesla Inc. could see heavy trade amid questions about the electric-car maker's ability to turn out as many Model 3 sedans as promised. On Monday, Monday's selloff was broad-based and deep. Looking ahead, music-streaming company Spotify Technology S.A. is set to make its debut as public company in the U.S. later Tuesday.
Gabelli & Co. analyst John Tinker initiated coverage of Spotify Technology with a hold rating on Tuesday, ahead of the stock's expected trading debut later in the day. Tinker commented that "the lack of a float combined with few platform investment opportunities could result in an initially strong stock price," but he thinks there are several risks to Spotify's business model. "Apple is growing faster than Spotify and has a different business model whereby music does not have to be profitable on a standalone basis," Tinker wrote. He also worries that increased scale might not result in better margins given that the record labels represent a "tight selling group with extensive catalog who may be difficult to dislodge." Finally, Tinker is concerned that the recent decline in average revenue per user means that Spotify doesn't have a lot of pricing power. He assigned a $130 private market value on the stock for 2019.
Shares of music-streaming service Spotify Technology SA are expected to begin trading Tuesday.
A second Wall Street analyst on Thursday recommended buying Spotify Technology's stock , which is expected to make its public debut early next week. Analyst Rob Sanderson at MKM Partners started coverage of the Luxembourg-based music streaming company with a buy rating and $200 stock price target, saying he's bullish on the margin opportunity and the expected growth of its target market. "We believe margin leverage comes with [Spotify's] influence on audience and demand generation," Sanderson wrote in a note to clients. "Enabling emerging artists could evolve into a long-term disruptive force for labels, or into a farm-system to enhance labels, but we think either path would be margin accretive for [Spotify]." He said he believes a streaming audio service will eventually reach 80% of smartphone users, which implies a 2.4 billion user total addressable market (TAM) over the next several years. RBC Capital also initiated coverage of Spotify on Thursday with an outperform rating and $220 stock price target. Spotify said earlier this week that it expects to have 198 million to 208 million monthly active users by the end of the current fiscal year, with the midpoint of that range implying a rise of 29% from a year ago. Spotify is going public at a time the Renaissance IPO ETF has gained 1.9% over the past three months, while the S&P 500 has slipped 1.2%.
Spotify started at buy with $200 stock price target at MKM Partners
RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney initiated shares of Spotify Technology with an outperform rating and $220 price target, ahead of the stock's expected public debut in early April. Mahaney's target price represents "70%+ upside vs. recent private transaction price of $127.50," he wrote. He likes the large total addressable market for music-streaming services and Spotify's leading position in the market. The Consumer Technology Association believes consumers will spend $6.6 billion on music streaming services in 2018. Spotify has nearly twice as many paid subscribers as Apple Inc.'s Apple Music does. "Very high global aided brand awareness, relatively high customer satisfaction scores, and superior data-driven personalization all combine to help Spotify maintain its leadership position," Mahaney wrote. As for Spotify's financials, he believes gross margin can expand from 21% in 2017 to upwards of 30% by 2022. He also points to declining churn rates.
Spotify Technology issued financial guidance for its fiscal year and fiscal first quarter, ahead of its direct listing which is expected to occur next week. The Luxembourg-based music-streaming company expects to have 198 million to 208 million monthly active users by the end of the fiscal year, including paid and free users, which would mark a rise of about 29% year-over-year at the midpoint of that range. Spotify predicts that its paid user base will grow faster than that. Its outlook calls for 92 million to 96 million premium subscribers by the end of the year, up 33% at the midpoint. Spotify also forecasts revenue of between €4.9 billion to €5.3 billion, up 25% at the midpoint, after factoring in negative currency effects of €260 million to €300 million.
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Spotify opens at $165.90, near $30B valuation
Spotify opening indications climb to $150/$160 (updated)
Spotify opening indications climb to $150/$160
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As Spotify is about to go public, CEO Daniel Ek faces the daunting task of making his company profitable while fending off streaming competition from tech giants such as Apple, Alphabet’s Google and Amazon.com.
Investors in Spotify could be in for a turbulent first day of trading as the company uses an unorthodox maneuver to go public on the NYSE.
The streaming giant’s path to tech stardom involves developing a new business model in conflict with its current one.
Rising interest rates and regulatory scrutiny of mergers and acquisitions create a more challenging picture.
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