Following an abnormally cold March, April looks to pick up right where the last month left off. Weather models are predicting lower-than-normal temperatures and, yes, even opportunities (plural) for wet snow.
If you hate snow or are frankly over it, no need to freak out. Models have become slightly less enthusiastic about our snow chances since Wednesday. And, most likely, if we see any snow, it would melt on contact with the ground. Accumulation chances are low, except if you’re headed into the mountains (above 2,000 feet), where they are somewhat higher through the week.
The first chance of snow comes along Monday morning. A wave of low pressure is predicted to form along an Arctic cold front that passed through the region Sunday, positioned to our south.
The European model had suggested a period of wet snow in several straight forecasts Tuesday and Wednesday, but it backed off a little bit in its prediction last night. Now, it predicts most of the precipitation to remain to our south, and falling in the form of rain. The American model has a similar forecast.
But some of the European model simulations with slight tweaks to their inputs still show a period of wet snow. We’ll keep an eye on this.
European model shows a 10 to 20 percent chance of an inch of snow around Washington on Monday, and higher chances in the mountains. Note, however, this modeling assumes snowfall would stick, which is unlikely around D.C., given forecast temperatures. (WeatherBell.com)
While way into the future, both the American and European modeling systems have hinted at the possibility of some more wet snowflakes between Thursday, April 5 and Sunday, April 9. As that’s seven to 10 days from now, it’s near the range when model projections aren’t particularly reliable.
Simulations from the American modeling system suggest the chance of rain and/or wet snow in the region, Saturday, April 7. (WeatherBell.com)
But some storminess is likely in this period. Whether precipitation falls as cold rain, wet snow or a mix will depend on the specifics of the storm track and how much cold air can be drawn south. The Nationals play their opening home series during this stretch and may face some disruption, but we’ll just have to see from what and when.
We’ll continue tracking what should be the season’s final snow chances over the coming days and will keep you posted. Once we can finally dispense with or get beyond them, we’ll be in position to declare winter over.