Spies, lies and return of cold war rhetoric

The expulsion of more than 120 Russian diplomats by over 20 western nations has sparked speculation about a return of the Cold War. President Vladimir Putin now faces what is being described as Russia’s biggest diplomatic crisis since it annexed Crimea in March 2014. In another throwback to the Cold War era, the expulsions come after the poisoning of a former Russian double agent and his daughter in the UK with a deadly nerve agent apparently preferred by the Russian military. As expected, Moscow, which denies involvement in the poisoning, has initiated tit-for-tat expulsions and warned of other ‘harsh actions’.

This show of European solidarity with Britain—which expelled 23 Russian diplomats—comes when ties between the UK and Europe are strained over Brexit. The US action is significant because apart from expelling 48 diplomats and shutting the Russian Consulate in Seattle, it has also expelled 12 Russian diplomats at the UN, described by the State Department as “intelligence operatives” who have “abused their privilege of residence” in the US. The main impact of these expulsions will be on Russian intelligence, since most of those expelled are suspected spies.

No Asian or African nation has initiated any action against Russia so far. While it is too early to predict whether Russia will align closely with China in the hope of forging an anti-US axis, one can expect a revival of the strident rhetoric of the Cold War, even though the geopolitical circumstances are radically different today.

For India, this comes at a time when New Delhi has been reaching out to Moscow to speed up defence deals and revive a relationship which has seen better days. Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to visit Russia soon, while PM Narendra Modi is expected to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation—a Eurasian strategic and security platform—summit later this year in China. Under these circumstances, New Delhi is likely to resort to something it is already renowned for: wait and watch.