(Zsaj via Flickr)

So far, it’s the year without a spring in Washington. Temperatures have remained below normal in the region for 22 straight days and, at Dulles, have dropped below freezing the past 20 days, a March record.

[It’s not your imagination: March in Washington has been really cold]

Springlike weather will tease the region Wednesday through Friday, with highs in the 60s to possibly near 70 on Thursday, but temperatures will come crashing back down next week.

The first week of April promises to be colder than normal, and we cannot rule out wet snow. Even beyond next week, the pattern will probably shape up on the cool side.

A cold front sweeping through the region between Easter Sunday and early next week will initiate the shift back to chilly weather. The American modeling system forecasts highs hovering in the 50s through the first 10 days of April. These temperatures are more typical of the first 10 days of March.


American modeling system 16-day temperature forecast. (Weatherbell.com)

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that temperatures may end up more variable than shown here. This forecast takes the average of 20 simulations, so it smooths out some of the temperature fluctuations that are typical at this time of year.

The sun is strong enough in early April so that it takes only a brief change in wind direction to make the difference between highs in the 50s and into the 70s.

While the coldest weather with respect to normal over the Lower 48 is expected to focus in the Midwest early next week, the signal for chilly weather in the eastern United States becomes strong by the middle of next week lasting through at least April 10.


European model 7-day temperature difference from average April 4 to 11. (WeatherBell.com)

Only the strong April sun may take an edge off the cold. As the average high this time of year is rising above 60 degrees, even when temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees below normal, highs should still be close to 50.

That said, with cold air in place, we’ll need to watch disturbances passing through the flow that could bring wet snow or cold rain to the region. The American and Canadian models show the chance of wet snow Monday or Monday night as a wave of low pressure forms along the Arctic front poised to our south.


American and Canadian models show a chance of a little snow Monday or Monday night.

The European model does not show this feature, but it hints the pattern could support wet snow or rain late next week, around April 5 or 6.

Unless snow falls at night in early April, it’s usually too warm for it to stick and cause problems. Accumulating snow is typically confined to the high elevations to our west. But the mere fact that we’re still talking about snow is remarkable.

The last time measurable snow fell in April in Washington was in 2007, when 0.4 of an inch fell on April 7.

We were mulling declaring winter over Tuesday or Wednesday, but the latest forecasts present a strong case not to. We may be in a position to do so in another week or so. But, then again, this cool pattern may have legs, with the potential to persist through April.

By the time we can declare winter over this year, it may be almost time to announce the start of summer. And so it goes.