The Golden State Warriors announced Saturday that two-time NBA MVP Stephen Curry will miss at least three weeks with a Grade 2 medial collateral ligament sprain in his left knee, casting some doubt on their chances to repeat as NBA champions.
Curry was averaging 26.4 points, 6.1 assists and 4.4 rebounds with a league-leading true shooting percentage of 67.5 percent before the injury and is the third-most valuable player in 2017-18 per ESPN’s Real Plus Minus (plus-6.0), a metric that estimates a player’s on-court impact after taking into account his teammates and their opponents. Only the Houston Rockets’ superstars, James Harden (plus-7.1) and Chris Paul (plus-7.0), have been better.
The Warriors’ offense is built around Curry’s ability to move the ball and draw the attention of defenders. His 1.4 points per possession in the half-court offense put him in the 95th percentile of NBA players, and Golden State’s offense is more than 14 points per 100 possessions better when Curry is on the court. This offensive gap is a bit misleading, however, and his absence shouldn’t derail a championship run by Golden State, though it does make it much more difficult.
The team’s most frequently used lineup featuring Curry is loaded with talent and includes former MVP and scoring champ Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, the 2016-17 defensive player of the year, and Klay Thompson, a two-time all-NBA team member. Those four, along with center Zaza Pachulia, have outscored opponents by 8.2 net points per 100 possessions.
Durant, Green, Thompson and Pachulia have outscored opponents by 10.1 net points per 100 possessions with Curry on the bench or unavailable. Part of that improvement could be a function of a smaller sample size — Coach Steve Kerr has used that group without Curry for just 67 minutes — but it does show that the team can at least keep it together without Curry on the court.
| Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Zaza Pachulia … | Minutes | O Rtg | D Rtg | Net Rtg | True shooting percentage |
| With Stephen Curry | 414 | 120.9 | 112.7 | 8.2 | 64.9% |
| Without Stephen Curry | 67 | 119.3 | 109.2 | 10.1 | 62.3% |
The biggest change is a shift from shots at the rim and behind the three-point line to those from midrange, perhaps a byproduct of backup point guard Shaun Livingston taking just four three-point attempts all season. He has just 70 three-point attempts in his career, which started in 2004-05.
If the season ended today, the Warriors, the No. 2 team in the West, would face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs. Based on their record to date and what we would expect their record to be according to their points scored and allowed, the Warriors would be expected to win a seven-game series with home-court advantage against the Timberwolves 89 percent of the time. If you adjust the Warriors’ record without Curry for the small sample size (13-8), Golden State would win the first-round series against Minnesota 67 percent of the time.
If Curry isn’t available for the second round, which would bring the winner of the matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs, the Warriors — using the adjusted win rate without Curry — would be expected to win a seven-game series with home-court advantage 63 or 66 percent of the time.
Assuming the Warriors make it to the Western Conference finals, where they should meet the Rockets, they would no longer have home-court advantage, making them the underdog. With a healthy Curry, the Warriors would be expected to pull off the upset 33 percent of the time. Without him, that drops to 11 percent. In other words, Curry’s presence in the lineup boosts the Warriors’ chances of making the NBA Finals from 3 to 22 percent.
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